Baseball Handicapping - May 18, 2008

We went 6-1 yesterday for +18 units. That boosts our record to 20-7 for +43.4 units over the past week! Today we have seven picks including another 5-unit selection. We are also winning in the NBA and NHL and have a pick in each of those sports tonight.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	20-7 last 27 picks	74%	+$4340
NBA	23-14 last 37 picks	62%	+$2280
NHL	39-24 last 63 picks	62%	+$2860
TOTAL			+$9480

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Kansas City at Florida (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Florida +100 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2)

Something is different with the Marlins. They are 24-18 to start the season and, get this, they are spending money! They laid out $70 million for a six-year deal with Hanley Ramirez on Saturday - the richest contract in the club's history. He's one reason the Marlins are getting 5.3 runs per game against right-handed starters (19-13 mark). Their offense should be enough to get it done against Kansas City who is averaging just 3.8 per game against RHP. Yes, Greinke has been very good, but he's shown signs of cooling a bit of late. We like the Marlins here.

We were on the Reds yesterday on both the moneyline and -1.5 runline and they came through. As they go for the sweep today, we like them again when they face Cliff Lee. Lee has been outstanding with a spotless 6-0 record and 0.67 ERA. He's gotten 11 strikeouts for every walk. So why do we like the Reds here? Well, they are at home and sport their own ace in Edinson Volquez who is 6-1 with a 1.12 ERA. He hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any start and has posted 57 strikeouts already. Backing up Volquez is a Reds pen that has posted a 2.88 ERA at home this season. And, of course, baseball is not just about pitching. The Indians are managing just 4.2 runs per game (3.9 per game on the road and 2.6 per game over their last seven). We'll take the hot home team with their ace on the mound in a live dog role.

Shaun Marcum has pitched to a 2.22 ERA. On the road, it's 1.66 and over his last three starts it's at an unreal 0.77. Over those last three against Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Chi Sox, he's allowed just two runs on eight hits in 23 frames. He struck out 23 while walking just four batters. Wowser! Kyle Kendrick has been average overall, but at home he's pitched to a 3.79 ERA allowing just eight total runs and one long-ball in 19 innings. The Jay's can't hit as they average just 3.5 runs per game on the road. They have gone UNDER in 11 of 18 road games thus far. Philadelphia has gone UNDER 13 out of 23 at home. Toronto is 13-4 UNDER this season after two straight road games. They are 15-4 UNDER to a total of 9 or 9.5 and that includes a 10-1 UNDER mark on the road in this total range. This one should be a very low-scoring affair.

After going through a four-game streak in which they scored four total runs, Oakland bats are showing signs of heating up again as they put up five runs on Hudson yesterday. We were on that OVER yesterday with two very strong pitchers on the mound. We're back on the OVER today with less talent on the hill. Let's not forget what we talked about yesterday - the Braves are an amazing home team. They are averaging 5.8 runs per game here this season on .310 hitting! We'll back the OVER again in this game.

Baltimore goes for the sweep and we love them to get it. Is anyone playing better than the O's right now? They have won four straight and seven of eight. A win here gives them two straight sweeps (the other against the Red Sox). They are averaging 5.6 runs per game over those seven wins. They face a rookie in this game and despite a solid overall ERA (3.74), Lannan has allowed 4+ runs in three starts already. The Nats are just 8-15 on the road this season and they are averaging just 3.7 runs per game against RHP. Baltimore is 14-6 at home and riding momentum. Washington has really struggled in expected low-scoring games. The past two seasons they are just 15-49 when the game total is under nine! This season when Baltimore is off 2+ straight home games, they are 11-4. We like them to get the sweep here.

Kason Gabbard hasn't won in five games, but he still doesn't have a loss and has posted a 2.12 ERA (1.64 in his last three starts). With the Astros averaging just 4.5 runs per game on the road, we see them struggling to score a lot here. Texas is a team that can put up runs at home for sure. But, Backe hasn't been horrible. The Astros are 17-9 UNDER on the road this season. They are also 9-1 UNDER on the road following a loss. Brandon Backe is 12-2 UNDER as a road dog of +100 to +150 over the past decade. Texas, over the past three seasons is 42-22 UNDER after a 4+ run win. This total is just too high, and it asks too much from Texas to reach.

Detroit is just 9-14 on the road scoring 3.9 runs per game. They are 3-13 in day games, averaging 3.1 runs per game, batting .233. Randy Johnson hasn't been great by any means, but his team is scoring enough to keep him out of the loss column. Arizona puts up 6.0 runs per game at home and this is a very reasonable price on them today. Nate Robertson is just 3-12 the past two seasons against winning teams while the D-Backs are 19-7 this season vs. winning opponents. Arizona is 21-43 the past two seasons revenging a loss as a home favorite and we like them in that situation here.

Results: 3-4

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Take a look at our blog baseball picks here.
• Read our MLB lines and odds here.
• Read our MLB ATS records here.
• Read our 2008 MLB prior picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 season MLB handicapping preview.
• View baseball betting approach here.
• Check out mlb baseball handicapping here.
• Don't forget to read our baseball betting here.
• Take a look at our MLB Game Analysis here.
• Check out baseball prior predictions here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-17-2008
Tampa Bay enters red-hot while the Cards have been struggling mightily after a good start. The problem for the Cards is they can't seem to get anyone out anymore, and in the past 14 games, the opp...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-16-2008
Washington spoiled the Mets chances to make the playoffs last September, and come back and take three of four in NY. Other than being Met killers the track record on the road for the Nats isn't ve...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-15-2008
This game is all about Ben Sheets and more importantly, a healthy Ben Sheets. This guy doesn't get the same credit as other top pitchers in the league, because of his oft-injured status, but he is...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-14-2008
The Red Sox have been cruising at home, but sure have had trouble on the road of late. They have been swept already this season in Tampa and Toronto, and just lost three of four in Minnesota as well a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-13-2008
Don't look now but the Rays are 22-16 and looking down on the Yankees in the AL East. They have won five in a row and look forward to hosting the Yankees - a team they have given fits to over the ...