Baseball Betting Pick - May 17, 2008

We grabbed another +5.9 units yesterday as we nailed our 5-unit play on Arizona. Over the last five days we have been on fire to the tune of +25.5 units and winning at 70% (14-6)! Seven picks in six games today with another 5-unit play.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Tampa Bay at St. Louis (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 8 -105 (risk 3 to win 2.9)

Tampa Bay enters red-hot while the Cards have been struggling mightily after a good start. The problem for the Cards is they can't seem to get anyone out anymore, and in the past 14 games, the opponents are battering the pitching staff to the tune of 5.6rpg, and in 5 of these games the opponent has reached this posted total, all by themselves! At the same time the offense has been very consistent, as they have scored 3+ runs in 19 of the last 20. This is a different Ray's team than in the past, as they have put up 5+ in 22 games already on the season. This total appears to be quite low all things considered, and we will play this one over.

We like the Reds chances here at a big win so we will also back them on the -1.5 runline.

Anytime you can get Aaron Harang at what amounts to a pick-em game at home, you have to pull the trigger. It makes even more sense that the Reds are suddenly a hot team, winning four straight. The Reds have won 60% of the games Harang has started over the past three years at home. As good as Carmona has been the Indians are barely above 50% in his career road starts. This is also an Indian's lineup that is really struggling. The Tribe has plated three runs or less in 12 of their last 18, and have already been shutout four times, which is already more than half of their total of seven last season. Reds stay hot with Harang at the helm.

Hard to understand the total on this one, but we are sure it may be padded due to the fact these teams put up 24 runs last night. The difference here is a pair of aces taking the mound. Why do we see so much value here? Consider the fact that Roy Oswalt has pitched in games resulting in less than 10 runs scored to the tune of 74-30 over the last 4+ years. That is 71.2% of the time. On the Ranger side you have Padilla who has been great thus far, with an ERA of 3.23, and an even better 1.33 over his last four starts. Last night was a result of a completely different set of pitchers and circumstances, this one goes under.

The Bird's are now 6-1 over their last seven games and the pitching has been a good share of the reason by holding opponents to 3.4 runs per game. Other than their success against the Mets, the Nats have been a dreadful road team for the past few years. They will enter this one with a 6-14 road mark in their last 20. Based on season stats, you could say the pitching matchup is a dead heat. The difference is hot team vs. bad road team, and the critical area is Washington's pen has yielded 1.6 runs after Hernandez leaves, while in Burres' last seven starts - just four runs have been given up. We'll take the Birds in this one.

Rich Harden faces Tim Hudson here in a classic pitcher's duel. But, we like this game to go OVER the low total. There is no doubt that Hudson has been amazing, but Harden's good overall ERA of 3.68 hides some problems. He's lasted just 4.9 innings per start and he's had some serious control issues walking 11 batters in 14.7 frames. On the road his ERA is 5.58. The Braves are terrible one the road, but are awesome at home where they are 15-4 thanks to an average of 5.9 runs per game. They should have success against Harden. Oakland is scoring 5.2 runs per game against RHP and should get enough runs here to push it OVER the posted total of eight.

The Tigers just keep losing and can't seem to find there way. They are now just 2-11, and the losing streak has reached five games. These 13 games show the Tiger offense producing just 39 runs or three a game. Not many wins are going to be manufactured like that. Armondo Galarraga has been good, but has had a tough time against the two hitting teams he has faced in Boston and Anaheim. Arizona has been a tough out at home, and Max Scherzer has pitched every bit as well as Galarraga, but the difference here is the bats are clicking for the D-backs, and the Tigers have been silenced. Throw in the fact that a struggling lineup is now a bat shorter without a DH and the D-backs are in control at home.

Results: 6-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-16-2008
Washington spoiled the Mets chances to make the playoffs last September, and come back and take three of four in NY. Other than being Met killers the track record on the road for the Nats isn't ve...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-15-2008
This game is all about Ben Sheets and more importantly, a healthy Ben Sheets. This guy doesn't get the same credit as other top pitchers in the league, because of his oft-injured status, but he is...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-14-2008
The Red Sox have been cruising at home, but sure have had trouble on the road of late. They have been swept already this season in Tampa and Toronto, and just lost three of four in Minnesota as well a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-13-2008
Don't look now but the Rays are 22-16 and looking down on the Yankees in the AL East. They have won five in a row and look forward to hosting the Yankees - a team they have given fits to over the ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-12-2008
In game one of this double header, Zach Duke looks to continue Pittsburgh's roll. He's off a very good performance over San Francisco in which he allowed three runs on eight hits in seven and ...