Sports Pick Mlb - May 12, 2008

Today we have picks in six games...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Atlanta at Pittsburgh (12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh +124 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.7)

In game one of this double header, Zach Duke looks to continue Pittsburgh's roll. He's off a very good performance over San Francisco in which he allowed three runs on eight hits in seven and a third. The Pirates have won five in a row thanks to good pitching and hitting (28 runs over last five games). We faded Atlanta a couple of nights ago thanks to their league-worst road record (now 4-13) and 3.7 runs per game away from home. Why will that change today? We'll gladly fade them getting juice.

If Atlanta does win this one, we see a very low chance at that coming by 2+ runs so we'll also back the Pirates on the +1.5 runline.

Fausto Carmona emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball for the Indians last season, and with a 2.95 ERA, he is delivering once again for the Tribe. The Indians have a 22-3 mark against the -1.5 runline in wins with Carmona on the mound. A.J. Burnett certainly has the stuff to be a winner, but injuries have led him to be an average pitcher. Thus far this season, he has been pitching to a sub-par 5.19 ERA. The Jays have found their way to the bottom of the AL East standings, and have had difficulties finding the win column on the road the last couple years. We will ride Carmona and the Tribe in game one of the doubleheader.

It's hard to ignore what Cliff Lee has done on the mound this season. He is throwing free and easy, and with tremendous confidence. He is 6-0 with a microscopic 0.81 ERA. His control has been amazing as he has allowed just 2 walks in 45 innings of work. The Tribe has outscored their opponents 26-5 in his starts, as the pen has allowed just 1 run in the six starts he has made. Shaun Marcum has pitched well, but the Blue Jay bats have been asleep all season, and has scored 2 runs or less in four of his starts. We will take the Tribe in game two as well, as they get the sweep at home.

St. Louis looks to break out of their mini losing streak tonight, sending Adam Wainwright to the mound. He'll be facing a Brewers club that has lost seven of their last nine games. Wainright has been stellar this season posting a 2.25 ERA. Over his last three starts he has allowed just 4 total runs and 13 hits in over 22 innings. Milwaukee sends Dave Bush to the mound who has posted a 6.98 ERA thus far in six appearances. St. Louis has the offensive advantage too, outbatting the Brewers by 38 percentage points so far on the season. Milwaukee bats just .237 vs. LHP and we don't see them mustering much offense today.

Texas is actually scoring at home this season at 4.9 runs per contest. Both teams start pitchers who've done very well in Bedard and Padilla, but the bullpens here can give up runs in bunches. Seattle's has a 5.53 ERA and is struggling with control. The last two seasons, Seattle is 50-38 OVER vs. teams scoring under 4.8 runs per game and 20-11 OVER vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.20 or better. Texas is 12-4 OVER this season vs. low-scoring teams (under 4.8 runs per game). The Rangers are also 14-5 OVER this season following a loss. Padilla is 20-10 OVER the past two seasons in all games including 11-3 OVER to a total of 9 or 9.5.

Barry Zito has turned out to be a big contract bust for the Giants. He has dropped all seven decisions this season, pitching to a 6.95 ERA. The Giants have now lost 22 of his last 29 starts - the worst in baseball - over that length of time. To compound things, the Giants have scored just 9 runs in the seven games he has started. Roy Oswalt after a couple bad starts early, has now delivered five startight quality starts, with the Astros winning four of them. This is a guy with a career winning percentage of over 67%, and we will ride him vs a struggling Zito in this one.

Results: 5-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-11-2008
Nate Robertson has struggled the entire season, as he has allowed four runs or more in each of his seven starts. His troubles are not limited to this season. Over the past 3+ years, the Tigers ar...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-10-2008
In game one of the double-header, we'll back the Reds on the +1.5 run line. Johan Santana goes for the Mets and he's been very good if not outstanding thus far with his new team. The Reds are ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-09-2008
Are we getting Roy Halladay as an underdog? Yes we are! He's pitching very well again this season having posted a 3.00 ERA. He's off a gem against the White Sox in which he allowed just one ea...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-08-2008
Kevin Slowey was impressive last year late, where the Twins won seven of his 11 starts. He has missed the start of the season with a biceps problem, but he certainly has the capacity to pitch the Twin...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-07-2008
Edinson Volquez still is well under the radar. The numbers don't lie. The numbers make the case that he has been the best pitcher in baseball thus far in '08. The log is eye-opening. He h...