Mlb Free Tips - May 11, 2008

4-3 for +0.5 units yesterday. Today we have a big card with picks in seven games and lots of early action.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: New York Yankees at Detroit (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees +104 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.1)

Nate Robertson has struggled the entire season, as he has allowed four runs or more in each of his seven starts. His troubles are not limited to this season. Over the past 3+ years, the Tigers are just 41-63 in his 104 starts. The Yankees send Andy Pettitte to the hill to oppose the Tigers. Behind Pettitte, the Yankees have allowed just four runs per game, which is the best Robertson has been able to do all season. Pettitte has been able to go at least five innings in every start, and when the Yankees can shorten games and turn it over to the back of the pen, they usually find the win column.

The Reds send a rookie in Johnny Cueto to the mound today. He's got a losing record and a 5.27 ERA. He's got heat, but he has been susceptible to giving up runs in bunches. In his road starts he has lasted just 4.7 frames per start yielding five runs per game. Oliver Perez has had a rough go of it lately, but he's more seasoned and is at home. The Mets are 10-6 at home while the Reds are 7-13 on the road. Over the past three seasons, New York is 92-59 to a line of +125 to -125. That includes a 29-15 mark at home. We'll back the Mets on a very reasonable price here.

Zach Duke looks to continue Pittsburgh's roll. He's off a very good performance over San Francisco in which he allowed three runs on eight hits in seven and a third.  The Pirates have won five in a row thanks to good pitching and hitting (28 runs over last five games). We faded Atlanta last night thanks to their league-worst road record (now 4-13) and 3.7 runs per game away from home. Why will that change today? We'll gladly fade them getting juice.

If Atlanta does win this one, we see a very low chance at that coming by 2+ runs so we'll also back the Pirates on the +1.5 runline.

Ervin Santana is a hot pitcher to open '08, as the Angels have logged a 6-1 record in his eight starts. He has been even hotter recently, not allowing a run in two straight starts. Santana has yet to allow more than seven hits in any outing. Andy Sonnanstine remains an average to marginal big league pitcher. The Rays were 7-15 with him on the hill last season. Those numbers have improved, but based on scoring over six runs per game in his starts, which is very unlikely today. The Angels take this one on the road.

Brandon Looper has quietly pitched to a 3.88 career ERA and has matched that this season. He is a winning pitcher that keeps the Cards in games. That's a stark contrast to Jeff Suppan who possesses a 4.62 career ERA, almost a full run higher. Suppan has an ERA over five entering this one and just can't seem to find the zone. The Cards have won as many games as any team in the NL, and are playing very well. Meanwhile the Brewers, who many thought would be atop the NL Central have struggled. We see lots of value on the Cards here, so we will back them.

Can Baltimore pull off the sweep? Yes! They send Brian Burres (3.19 ERA) to the hill. He's opposed by Brian Bannister who has lost four straight starts. The O's are a winning team that has a 16-13 record against RHP. Kansas City is 6-12 at home and they are scoring just 3.1 runs per game at home (3.0 against lefties). The reason the O's have won three straight over KC is that it's a good matchup. Baltimore is now 11-5 on the season against teams that score under 4.8 runs per game. Baltimore's offense isn't very good, but KC can't take advantage of that. The Royals are just 7-22 the past two seasons vs. teams that score under 4.3 runs per game. They are also 7-27 at home over the past three seasons against starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better. We like Baltimore to sweep.

Boston scores 5.7 runs per game at home but just 4.5 per game on the road. Their pitching has really picked up as they are allowing just 3.7 runs per game over their last seven. Minnesota is 11-7 UNDER at home this season and they are averaging just 7.2 total runs per game at home. Against Tim Wakefield (3.33 ERA, 2.57 over his last three starts), we expect the Twins offense to again struggle. Nick Blackburn has been very solid posting a 3.65 ERA (1.66 at home). The Red Sox are 34-19 UNDER on the road against winning teams and 26-12 UNDER against teams that allow fewer than 4.8 runs per game over the last two seasons. With Wakefield on the mound they are 15-4 to the UNDER on the road the past two seasons. With Wakefield starting, the Sox are 19-5 UNDER on the road to a total of 8.5 to 10 over the past three seasons.

Results: 1-4

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our updated blog baseball.
• View MLB spreads here.
• Check out baseball ATS standings here.
• Read our 2008 MLB baseball picks season results here.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 season MLB handicapping preview here.
• View our betting mlb baseball here.
• Here we show our free mlb baseball picks.
• Check out our updated sportsbook reviews baseball.
• Read our Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Check out MLB record here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-10-2008
In game one of the double-header, we'll back the Reds on the +1.5 run line. Johan Santana goes for the Mets and he's been very good if not outstanding thus far with his new team. The Reds are ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-09-2008
Are we getting Roy Halladay as an underdog? Yes we are! He's pitching very well again this season having posted a 3.00 ERA. He's off a gem against the White Sox in which he allowed just one ea...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-08-2008
Kevin Slowey was impressive last year late, where the Twins won seven of his 11 starts. He has missed the start of the season with a biceps problem, but he certainly has the capacity to pitch the Twin...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-07-2008
Edinson Volquez still is well under the radar. The numbers don't lie. The numbers make the case that he has been the best pitcher in baseball thus far in '08. The log is eye-opening. He h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-06-2008
Suddenly things are starting to change in the AL East. The Rays have now lost three straight and are looking more like the team we have seen over the years, getting outscored 26-10 in the th...