Baseball Gambling Pick - May 10, 2008

We had another bad night last night winning just one game as our streakiness continues. Today we look to get back on a winning streak with seven MLB picks.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cincinnati at New York Mets (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati +1.5 runs +110 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)

In game one of the double-header, we'll back the Reds on the +1.5 run line. Johan Santana goes for the Mets and he's been very good if not outstanding thus far with his new team. The Reds are off a 9-0 thumping of the Cubs - their second win in the last three games. We think they can keep this one within a run as the Mets' bats have not been impressive thus far. New York is batting just .233 and scoring 4.4 runs per game at home. They are just 5-9 against the run line and 7-14 against RHP. Road underdogs are 41-14 (75%) to the 1.5 run line when coming off a shutout win the past decade. Santana is just 3-14 against the run line in home games the past two seasons including an 0-7 mark when the total is 8 or 8.5.

Ben Sheets has delivered often for the Brewers and he's off to a great start this year. He is 4-0 with a 2.29 ERA and the Brewers have won five of his six starts. Joel Pineiro looked like he was going to be an ace for the Mariners when he first came up, but is now pitching for his third team, and hasn't broken the 4.33 ERA barrier since '03. He had three big years at the beginning of his career all with an ERA of in the 3's or less, and started his career 37-20, but it has been all downhill since. We'll grab the Brewers at home with a healthy Sheets.

Tim Lincecum is a must-play at this stage of his career. The opponents have scored just 16 runs in his seven starts, and he is still flying under the radar. He lost to the Phil's his last start, but gave up 4 unearned runs, otherwise yielding nothing. Jamie Moyer is soon to be 46 and continues to pitch effectively, but most of the time not deep into games, exposing the Philly pen. The Giants are horrible on the road, but have been a decent team at home. With Lincecum on the hill, they will always be in the game, and we will ride them in this one.

Sure, Atlanta has won six of seven. But, those six wins were at home. The Braves are the worst road team in the league. It's nearly mid-May and they have tallied just four road victories. When facing a line of +125 to -125 on the road, they are 1-10 this season. They are managing just 3.8 runs per game away from home while Pittsburgh gets 4.8 per contest at home and 5.9 per game vs. LHP! To make matters worse for the Braves, they start a pitcher in Chuck James who has a 7.62 ERA and who was shelled for 6 earned runs in 3 innings in his only road start. The Pirates go with Tom Gorzelanny who has had his own problems but they have won four in a row and have the offensive edge. We are going to fade the Bravos at a very reasonable line here.

The Cleveland offense was able to handle Roy Halladay. They will be able to take care of business vs. Dustin McGowan. Aaron Laffey is winless but it's not his fault. He's posted a 2.84 ERA. He'll be pitching to a team tha tis getting 3.6 runs per game on the road and 3.0 vs. LHP! It doesn't get much worse than that. The Blue Jays are 9-19 in night games this season and McGowan is 6-17 in night games the past two seasons. Cleveland is on a roll and they are likely to keep that going as they are 41-15 the past three seasons after having won 3+ of their last four games.

Joe Saunders is off to a 6-0 start for the Angels, with a 2.61 ERA. The Angels are 7-0 in his starts. Quietly, the Angels have won 28 of his 38 big league starts, which leaves them in a valued position as a dog. For Scott Kazmir, time on the DL has left him a bit behind, and he is still building arm strength, not up to speed yet. He pitched just 4 innings vs the Red Sox, and had no command allowing 9 base runners on 6 hits and 3 walks. He may be a few starts away from being the pitcher he is capable of being. Until then, the value lies on the otherside, and we will take the Angels here.

The Rangers go for their fifth win in a row and ninth in their last eleven. They start Kevin Millwood who has struggled of late after starting well. We expect him to bounce back against an Athletics team that is struggling offensively (21 runs in last seven games). The Rangers are 8-3 this season vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.20 or better. They are also 9-1 the past two seasons vs. teams that are allowing under 3.8 runs per game. We like the home team here.

Results: 4-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out blog baseball picks here.
• View our Baseball odds and lines here.
• Check out mlb against-the-spread records here.
• View our updated 2008 MLB pick results.
• Read our 2008 season MLB betting preview here.
• View our MLB betting approach here.
• View our baseball predictions here.
• View our mlb sportsbook here.
• View our MLB Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Here we show our MLB record.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-09-2008
Are we getting Roy Halladay as an underdog? Yes we are! He's pitching very well again this season having posted a 3.00 ERA. He's off a gem against the White Sox in which he allowed just one ea...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-08-2008
Kevin Slowey was impressive last year late, where the Twins won seven of his 11 starts. He has missed the start of the season with a biceps problem, but he certainly has the capacity to pitch the Twin...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-07-2008
Edinson Volquez still is well under the radar. The numbers don't lie. The numbers make the case that he has been the best pitcher in baseball thus far in '08. The log is eye-opening. He h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-06-2008
Suddenly things are starting to change in the AL East. The Rays have now lost three straight and are looking more like the team we have seen over the years, getting outscored 26-10 in the th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-05-2008
Detroit is motivated. After their sweep at the hands of the Twins, Jum Leyland promised "major changes" to his lineup. We like their chances here at home, even facing the hot Daisuke. Detroi...