Baseball Picks - May 09, 2008

We dropped six units last night. Tonight we come back with five picks.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto +114 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.4)

Are we getting Roy Halladay as an underdog? Yes we are! He's pitching very well again this season having posted a 3.00 ERA. He's off a gem against the White Sox in which he allowed just one earned run on three hits in 7+ innings. He's never lost a start in ten tries against the Indians. Sabathia continues to struggle having put up a 1-5 mark with a 7.51 ERA. Sure, Toronto doesn't provide a lot of run support, but neither does Cleveland. The Indians are avaeraging just 4.3 runs per game at home (4.0 against righties). The Indians are just 3-8 this season at home against teams that allow under 4.7 runs per game. Sabathia is 10-17 the past three seasons as a favorite of -100 to -150.  It's not often we get Halladay at this price and we're going to jump all over it.

Rookie Greg Smith is still relatively unnoticed by most. He's got a 2-1 mark while posting a 2.54 ERA in six outings thus far. He's struck out 31 while allowing just 27 hits and hasn't given up more than three runs in a game yet. The A's bullpen is playing great (2.78 ERA). As a result of this pitching, Oakland is 11-6 on the road. Smith is a southpaw which is going to cause the Rangers fits as Texas is scoring just 2.9 runs per game in eight games thus far off of LHP. Oakland is 15-8 thus far in 2008 against teams batting .265 or worse. They are 15-7 against RHP and 9-3 in night games. We'll take the A's and Smith here.

Todd Wellmeyer goes for the Cards tonight and he has pitched well (3-1 with a 4.07 ERA). He's been a lot better than Manny Parra (1-2, 5.86) who is winless in his last five starts. The Brewers are in the midst of their worst slide since 2006, having lost six in a row. The St. Louis bats will be more alive today as this team is batting .279 on the season (.277 on the road). By contrast, Milwaukee is batting just .239, scoring 4.3 runs per game. Wellemeyer is 9-3 as an underdog the past two seasons. We like him and the hotter Cards bats here.

The leaders of the AL Central and AL East clash in this one. Minnesota is a balanced team, combining good pitching and solid hitting. Boston has been on a good run of late, but their offense on the road remains suspect. While scoring nearly six runs per game at home, they are averaging just 4.4 per game on the road. They send Jon Lester to the mound which bodes well for the Twins who are averaging 5.0 runs per game against lefties. Boof Bonser goes for the Twinkies and he is 20-10 the past three seasons in expected close gams (+125 to -125 moneyline). We'll back the home team in this one.

Derek Lowe has been a solid pitcher over his career, as his career ERA is at 3.81, and he is pitching to that same level this season at 3.66. His numbers against the Astros however, are significantly better standing at 2.23. Brian Moehler hasn't seen much of the mound this season, and hasn't done well when he gets the ball. His numbers agaisnt this Dodgers team are horrible, as he enters with a career 6.35 ERA against them. Moehler hasn't started a game since '06, and he hasn't for a reason as he pitched to a 6.57 ERA as a starter. He has not pitched more than four innings since then, and has trouble getting outs, particularly against this Dodgers team. We look for a convincing Dodgers win at home.

Results: 1-4

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

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MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-06-2008
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-05-2008
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-04-2008
Darrell Rasnor made six starts for the Yankees last year and gave up 3 runs or less in five of them. Rasnor was promoted from Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he was off to a 4-0 start with an 0...