Baseball Handicapping - May 08, 2008

We broke through yesterday to finish 4-3 for +4.4 units. The win upped our units to +8.1 over the last week and a half. Today we are back on the MLB diamond for five picks with an early game.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Minnesota at Chicago (2:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota +132 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4)

Kevin Slowey was impressive last year late, where the Twins won seven of his 11 starts. He has missed the start of the season with a biceps problem, but he certainly has the capacity to pitch the Twins into the win column. The Twins have also owned John Danks. They have some huge numbers against him, which is why he has a career 8.35 ERA against the Twins, and failed to get out of the third inning against them already this season. Danks is also a career 5+ ERA pitcher, and this one sets up well for the Twins.

Brandon Webb is at it again as he is off to a 7-0 start with a 2.49 ERA. Over the last four years, when he is on the hill and the D-Backs win, they are 50-13 against the -1.5 runline. That also includes 5-2 this season. Brett Myers is having trouble getting out of the gate. Good start, bad start, and scouts are wondering about his fastball in the low 90s in one start and high 80s the next. Would rather have the team that is off to the best start in baseball, at home, with the best pitcher against a guy who is struggling.

The Tigers ended their five-game losing streak and Boston's five-game winning streak with a come-from-behind win yesterday. Detroit's offense came alive with 18 hits and 10 runs. We look for that momentum to carry through to this game. The teams' aces take the mound and neither has lived up to expectations thus far. Despite their recent good run and healthy overall 22-14 record, the Sox are still a losing team on the road (8-9), where their offense struggles (4.4 runs per game). Detroit averages over a full run more than that at home (5.5) and they have the bullpen advantage. They have a winning record as an underdog the past two seasons and have gone 30-22 as a dog of less than +150.

A win in the rubber match will get the Blue Jays to .500 on the season. They send Jesse Litsch to the mound who owns a 4-1 mark thus far. He'll face Edwin Jackson who is 2-3 and hasn't won in three starts. In his last outing he gave up six runs and nine hits in just four innings. Toronto has been very stingy this season allowing just 3.5 runs per game (1.7 per game over their last seven). A big part of that has been a bullpen that has given up just 30 runs in 87 innings pitched (2.90 ERA and 81.3% saves). That doesn't bode well for the Rays who are just 17-54 the past three seasons on the road against teams with good bullpens (75%+ saves). Jackson has not been able to take advantage of weak offenses as he is just 3-15 the past two seasons against teams averaging under 4.8 runs per game. Toronto's achilles heel is their offense, but against the Rays that shouldn' t matter.

Baltimore has just one win in their last seven games and they have won just six of 18 road games. Yet they are favored here? Sure Kansas City has their problems, especially on offense. But, Baltimore is not a high-powered team. The O's are averaging just 3.6 runs per game on the road and 2.9 per game over their most current losing run. Baltimore knows how to go on and extend losing runs. The past two seasons they are 12-26 after having lost 6+ of their last eight games. They are also 72-137 over the past decade afer losing 4+ straight. We like the home team here at virtually even money.

Results: 1-4

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our mlb picks blog here.
• Check out MLB odds here.
• View our updated MLB ATS standings.
• Read our 2008 MLB season prior picks here.
• Take a look at our 2008 season MLB baseball gambling preview here.
• Read our betting mlb here.
• Check out our updated free baseball pick.
• Don't forget to visit our sports betting baseball.
• Read our MLB Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Check out our updated MLB picks.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-07-2008
Edinson Volquez still is well under the radar. The numbers don't lie. The numbers make the case that he has been the best pitcher in baseball thus far in '08. The log is eye-opening. He h...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-06-2008
Suddenly things are starting to change in the AL East. The Rays have now lost three straight and are looking more like the team we have seen over the years, getting outscored 26-10 in the th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-05-2008
Detroit is motivated. After their sweep at the hands of the Twins, Jum Leyland promised "major changes" to his lineup. We like their chances here at home, even facing the hot Daisuke. Detroi...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-04-2008
Darrell Rasnor made six starts for the Yankees last year and gave up 3 runs or less in five of them. Rasnor was promoted from Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he was off to a 4-0 start with an 0...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-03-2008
Matt Chico is 0-5 with a 6.68 ERA. In his last outing, a 7-0 loss, he allowed eight runs and five hits in just four innings. We'll gladly fade that at nearly even money. Paul Laholm goes...