Baseball Picks - May 07, 2008

We went 3-3 yesterday for -2.3 units. Today we have seven picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago at Cincinnati (12:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cincinnati -1.5 runs +158 (runline) (risk 4 to win 6.3)

Edinson Volquez still is well under the radar. The numbers don't lie. The numbers make the case that he has been the best pitcher in baseball thus far in '08. The log is eye-opening. He has worked 35 innings, 24 hits, five runs, 42 K's. He has yet to allow more than five hits in all six of his starts, and has not allowed more than a single earned run in all six starts. Jon Lieber has not made a start all season, so his innings will be limited. As a division winner last year, the Phillies were 3-9 with him as a starter. Lots of good numbers for the Reds against Lieber, and we look for them to win comfortably at home.

The Dodgers go for the sweep of the Mets and we like LA's chances with Brad Penny on the mound. Penny is 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA thus far. The Dodgers have now won ten of their last eleven as their offense is averaging 7.4 runs per game over that span! John Maine goes for New York, but his team is just 7-9 on the road and 5-7 in day games averaging just 3.9 runs per game. As we stated yesterday, the Mets haven't performed well against high-scoring teams. They are just 5-15 the past two seasons against teams averaging over 5.2 runs per game. Penny is 26-9 as a favorite over that sam span.

Two struggling pitchers meet here as Dave Bush (0-3, 6.46 ERA) goes against Burke Badenhop (0-2, 7.20). The Marlins are the hotter team having won three of four and sitting atop the NL East. The Brewers have dropped four in a row and Bush has given up 3+ runs in each of his four starts this season. He is just 10-25 the past two seasons on the road. Over that same span, Milwaukee is just 11-21 on the road vs. teams that allow 4.8+ runs per game. Florida is 13-6 this season against teams batting .255 or worse. We like the home team here.

After a rocky start, Roy Oswalt has delivered four straight quality starts. The Astros are 42-14 at home when they win with Oswalt on the mound to the -1.5 runline. Odalis Perez has pitched well enough to be better than 0-3, but the problem is the bullpen which has allowed two runs per game after he leaves. He has pitched over his head, and lost, as he has been a 6 ERA pitcher the last two years. After winning their first two on the road, the Nats have only managed to win two more. The Astros have been 9-2 in their last 11 at home, and have won four straight overall. We like them to win easily here tonight.

We have to ride Zack Greinke at this price. He's 3-1 thus far with a ridiculous 1.47 ERA. His lone loss came in a game in which he gave up jus two runs and four hits in seven innings. Kansas City has surprisingly won six of the last nine meetings with LA. Road teams with a winning record that have won 4+ straight games are actually just 31-71 (30%) the past five seasons at -125 to +125 when facing a losing team. The Angels are just 13-20 the past two seasons after 3+ consecutive wins. We'll back Greinke here.

After a 17-win 2007 campaign, Jeff Francis is winless in 2008. We think he notches his first win here. He is 4-1 with a 2.28 ERA over the Cardinals. The Rockies need Francis to come through to avoid the sweep. Francis is 44-30 the past three seasons, 20-8 when the total is between 9 and 10 and 13-4 against NL Central foes. The Rockies have had a rough go of it, but under Hurdle, this team is 14-7 after having lost 12+ of their last 15 games. We look for Colorado to break out of their slump of sorts and avoid the sweep tonight behind the arm of Jeff Francis.

Eric Bedard has been the most consistent pitcher in baseball over his last 25 starts, not counting his last one last year, when he was injured. He has had quality starts (three runs or less in 6+ innings) in 24 of the 25. The current Rangers' roster has done absolutely nothing with Bedard, as they combine to hit just .147 against him.  In contrast, Victor Padilla has had no success against the Mariners, as he is 2-5 with a 5.66 lifetime ERA. Ichiro has worn him out to the tune of a .577 average, and as a team, the Mariners are well over .300 against Padilla. The Mariners will feast, while the Rangers will be hard pressed to score here.

Results: 4-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-06-2008
Suddenly things are starting to change in the AL East. The Rays have now lost three straight and are looking more like the team we have seen over the years, getting outscored 26-10 in the th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-05-2008
Detroit is motivated. After their sweep at the hands of the Twins, Jum Leyland promised "major changes" to his lineup. We like their chances here at home, even facing the hot Daisuke. Detroi...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-04-2008
Darrell Rasnor made six starts for the Yankees last year and gave up 3 runs or less in five of them. Rasnor was promoted from Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he was off to a 4-0 start with an 0...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-03-2008
Matt Chico is 0-5 with a 6.68 ERA. In his last outing, a 7-0 loss, he allowed eight runs and five hits in just four innings. We'll gladly fade that at nearly even money. Paul Laholm goes...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-02-2008
What's up with the AL East? Boston and New York are struggling while the perennial bottom-dwellers are looking down on them. New York has lost six of their last eight games and tonight must face E...