Sports Handicapping Free Mlb Picks - May 06, 2008

We missed 'em all last night. We look to rebound tonight with six picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Toronto -1.5 runs +155 (runline) (risk 4 to win 6.2)

Suddenly things are starting to change in the AL East. The Rays have now lost three straight and are looking more like the team we have seen over the years, getting outscored 26-10 in the three losses. Andy Sonnanstine pitched to nearly a 6 ERA last season, and he is a bad outing away from that happening again. The Jays pitching has been better than anyone's over the past week and a half. They have allowed just 12 runs in their last nine games. A.J. Barnett has electric stuff, and when he is healthy, and pitching every five days, he seems to get stronger and better with every start. The Jays are tough at home and have won five straight. We look for them to breeze by the Rays in this one.

Aaron Harang is a good pitcher on a bad team. He went on one of the biggest runs a pitcher will ever go on last season as the Reds were 14-1 during a 15 game stretch when he took the ball. The problem is, the Reds are still not a good team, and don't have the aces in the pen to finish when he pitches well. The end result is the Reds went 14-1 over that 15 game stretch, but over the last 3+ years they are otherwise 45-49 when he starts. This year they are 3-4 and the pen is allowing 1.7rpg after he leaves. Zambrano has allowed 2 runs or less in six of his seven starts. The Cubs are the better team, and the Reds have already lost as many games as anyone in baseball. We'll ride Zambrano, supported by a better pen and better team.

Shawn Chacon hasn't registered a win yet this season but he doesn't have a loss either and has pitched to a 3.32 ERA. Shawn Hill is in a similar situation. The difference here is offense. Washington averages 3.9 runs per game (3.7 on the road and 3.2 vs. RHP). Meanwhile, Houston gets 5.9 runs per game at home on .347 hitting! The Nats are just 2-18 the past two seasons on the road vs. a pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better. Houston should take this one and at this price, it's a bargain.

Brandon Looper has started well at 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA. But he did that last year (starting 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA) only to end up 12-12 with a 5 ERA. His team must face a LHP today and they have been much less effective vs. southpaws this season. The Cards are just 14-25 the past two seasons following a win by 2 runs or less while Colorado is 33-18 over that span seeking revenge for two straight losses to an opponent. We like the Rockies at home in this one.

Both Burres and Duchscherer have pitched very well thus far, leading to this low total. But we like this one to go OVER. Baltimore is 34-17 OVER the past three seasons after three straight losses. Games with a total of 8 to 8.5 featuring a team that is hitting under .225 over their last ten games have gone OVER 72% of the time (49-19) the past five seasons when that team is facing a hot starting pitcher ERA under 2.50 over his last three starts). We'll take the OVER here.

Don't look now but the Dodgers are outperforming expectations - by a mile! After starting 9-13, they have won nine of ten games. Over their last seven games they are knocking in 7.9 runs per game. Even factoring the slow start, they are holding opponents to just 2.6 runs per gamae at home. Over the past two seasons, the Mets are 5-15 vs. teams scoring 5.3+ runs per game. This season they are 1-8 after three straight road games. We like the hot Dodgers here at a value-price.

Results: 3-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Hop over to our mlb blog here.
• View MLB odds lines and spreads here.
• Read our baseball against-the-spread standings here.
• Take a look at our 2008 MLB baseball prior pick results here.
• Here we show our 2008 MLB season preview.
• Don't forget to read our Baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Take a look at our mlb handicapping here.
• Updated today: mlb sportsbook.
• Hop over to our Baseball Game Analysis here.
• View our baseball prior picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-05-2008
Detroit is motivated. After their sweep at the hands of the Twins, Jum Leyland promised "major changes" to his lineup. We like their chances here at home, even facing the hot Daisuke. Detroi...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-04-2008
Darrell Rasnor made six starts for the Yankees last year and gave up 3 runs or less in five of them. Rasnor was promoted from Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he was off to a 4-0 start with an 0...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-03-2008
Matt Chico is 0-5 with a 6.68 ERA. In his last outing, a 7-0 loss, he allowed eight runs and five hits in just four innings. We'll gladly fade that at nearly even money. Paul Laholm goes...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-02-2008
What's up with the AL East? Boston and New York are struggling while the perennial bottom-dwellers are looking down on them. New York has lost six of their last eight games and tonight must face E...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-01-2008
This game looks too easy for Los Angeles. They are on fire while Florida has struggled and puts a rookie who's had no success on the mound. It looks too easy and that's a sign for us. Can...