Mlb Free Tips - May 05, 2008
We essentially broke-even yesterday (minus two tenths of a unit). We're up 19 units the past week and a half. Today we have four picks...
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Boston at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Detroit +108 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.2)
Detroit is motivated. After their sweep at the hands of the Twins, Jum Leyland promised "major changes" to his lineup. We like their chances here at home, even facing the hot Daisuke. Detroit is 17-5 the past two seasons vs. pitchers who give up under 6 hits per game. Bonderman has pitched well, posting a 3.11 ERA in his last three starts. Backing up these starters are a Detroit bullpen with a 2.96 home ERA and a Boston pen with a 5.85 road ERA. The Tigers are averaging 5.7 runs per game at home this season while Boston is averaging only 3.9 per game on the road. Detroit has a winning record as an underdog the past two seasons and we like them here in that role.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +123 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.7)
Ervin Santana is putting together a great season thus far as he goes for his sixth straight win. It seems like an easy win here for the Angels who have played well on the road. Take a look at this line, especially considering that opposing Santana will be Brett Tomko who is has a 6.26 ERA. Throw in the fact that KC is just 5-7 at home, scoring 2.8 runs per game, and you have to wonder why this line isn't much higher. It smells fishy and we think it's a trap. Santana isn't this good. He is due for a bad outing. The Angels haven't performed well against poor hitting teams, posting a sub-.500 record vs. teams batting .265 or worse the past couple of seasons. Over that same span, the Royals are plus-units vs. winning teams. This season KC is 12-8 as an underdog. We'll back the home dog here.
Game: Philadelphia at Arizona (9:40 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Arizona -1.5 runs +135 (runline) (risk 4 to win 5.4)
Jamie Moyer will be 46 in November. It shows how desperate the Phillies are for pitching. Moyer, from 1996-2003, had pitched to an ERA in the 3's in all but one season. His last five years including this one, he has not been below 4.28, and was over 5 last year. It will be again this year. He has also given up more HR's than any pitcher in baseball over the last four years (130) and add in four more so far this season. The D-Backs crushed LHP last season, and are producing 5.7 rpg against them this year. Max Scherzer will get his first start. He worked 4.1 perfect innings in his major league debut with seven K's no walks. He had 38 K's in 23 innings in AAA with a 1.17 ERA. This kid has the tools, and will be completely under-valued until odds-makers catch up to him. He tops off at 98 on the gun, and had just three walks in the 23 innings. Zona wins handily here.
Game: New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on New York Mets +118 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.5)
It all comes down to control for Oliver Perez. He becomes his own worst enemy at times, struggling with location. The one thing he has been able to do, is come back after a poor outing based on control, with a good one. Last year he walked 5+ in a game on seven occasions and provided a quality start in six of the seven subsequent outings. The Mets were 5-2 in those seven games. Chad Billingsley had a good season for the Dodgers last year. It has been a struggle for him so far this season as the Dodgers are just 1-4 in his starts, while his ERA has grown to 5+. The Dodgers ran off eight in a row before dropping their game yesterday, and other than the win streak, they have been just 9-14. The Mets offense is waking up after an inconsistent start, and we look for them to take this series opener in LA.
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-04-2008
Darrell Rasnor made six starts for the Yankees last year and gave up 3 runs or less in five of them. Rasnor was promoted from Scranton-Wilkes Barre, where he was off to a 4-0 start with an 0...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-03-2008
Matt Chico is 0-5 with a 6.68 ERA. In his last outing, a 7-0 loss, he allowed eight runs and five hits in just four innings. We'll gladly fade that at nearly even money. Paul Laholm goes...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-02-2008
What's up with the AL East? Boston and New York are struggling while the perennial bottom-dwellers are looking down on them. New York has lost six of their last eight games and tonight must face E...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-01-2008
This game looks too easy for Los Angeles. They are on fire while Florida has struggled and puts a rookie who's had no success on the mound. It looks too easy and that's a sign for us. Can...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-30-2008
Tom Gorzelanny pitched a bad team to an 8-9 record on the road last season, which means he keeps his team in games, and has posted an ERA under four over the last two seasons. The Mets have been in a ...
