Mlb Free Picks - May 03, 2008

We dropped 1.6 units yesterday and remain at +15.4 units the past week. Today we have five picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Pittsburgh at Washington (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh -109 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.8)

Matt Chico is 0-5 with a 6.68 ERA. In his last outing, a 7-0 loss, he allowed eight runs and five hits in just four innings. We'll gladly fade that at nearly even money. Paul Laholm goes for the Pirates. In contrast, he's got a 3.26 ERA and allowed just one run and two hits in a complete game his last time out. His team averaged 5.7 runs per game vs. southpaws. Washington averages just 3.7 runs per game at home. They are just 8-31 the past two seasons when facing a pitcher with a 3.50 or better ERA. They are alos 1-12 the past two seasons after having allowed 10+ runs in their last game. Pittsburgh is the play here.

Brandon Webb has been dominating over the last four years and this year is off to a 6-0 start with a 1.98 ERA. When he gets it rolling, he is virtually unhittable. The past four years when the D-backs win with him on the hill, they win by 2+ runs 79% of the time, as they are 49-13. The D-backs have not failed to win this season coming off a home loss. The Mets are just 8-13 over Mike Pelfrey's 21 career starts. His biggest problem is finding the strike-zone and trusting his stuff, as he has walked 10 in just 20 innings, and he has also served up 3 HR's in his last 10 innings. Pelfrey has allowed just about two baserunners for every big league inning he has pitched, and it will be a tough task for the Mets to hang with the D-Backs behind Webb.

Brandon Backe faces Manny Parra here. We like Backe and the Astros at home in this matchup. While most look to an overall better record for the Brewers, they are just 5-7 in their last twelve while Houston is 8-4 in their last twelve. Their offense has come alive, scoring 5.9 per game over that span including 20 runs in their last three. On the season, Houston is 7-5 at home scoring 5.7 per game. The Brew-Crew are just 68-110 the past three seasons on the road. Backe is 18-8 in division games and 23-5 at home! At this line, we love the value on the Stros.

We backed Tampa last night in a loss. We are going to come back with them here in game two given Tampa's recent success against Boston, and Boston's offensive woes. Last night's win was just the second in the last ten meetings vs. the Rays. Josh Beck remains a bit overvalued as he's turned in just a 2-2 record with a pedestrian 4.10 ERA thus far. James Shields has been better (3-1, 2.54 ERA). He has allowed no more than three earned runs in any start and just nine total walks in 39 innings pitched. We think there remains value on the Rays in game two.

The numbers speak for themselves in this one. Jake Peavy just wins games and almost always keeps the Padres in the game. Since his final road start in 2006, the Padres stand 14-0 to the -1.5 runline in games they win with him on the hill on the road. We will gladly take the "dog" value with a pitcher that is capable of not only winning on the road, but winning big. Ricky Nolasco has been struggling to a %+ ERA, but that has been his history as a major leaguer. His biggest problem is not being able to get LH hitters out at key times, as he has an 8.31 ERA against them. We ike the Pads in this one.

Results: 3-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• View our updated blog baseball.
• View our MLB Baseball lines and odds here.
• View our updated MLB ATS standings.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 baseball pick results here.
• View 2008 baseball handicapping preivew here.
• Check out MLB baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Check out our updated free mlb baseball picks.
• View our sports betting baseball here.
• Take a look at our MLB Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Check out MLB picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-02-2008
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-01-2008
This game looks too easy for Los Angeles. They are on fire while Florida has struggled and puts a rookie who's had no success on the mound. It looks too easy and that's a sign for us. Can...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-30-2008
Tom Gorzelanny pitched a bad team to an 8-9 record on the road last season, which means he keeps his team in games, and has posted an ERA under four over the last two seasons. The Mets have been in a ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-29-2008
Seattle has lost two straight series and have lost six of their last nine games. But, tonight they put Carlos Silva ont he mound. He's 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA. He's coming off an injury but we are...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-28-2008
Chicago goes for the series win with Javier Vazquez but they must get through Daniel Cabrera to get it. Cabrera is 2-0 and coming off a great performance on Wednesday in which he allowed just 2 runs a...