Sports Pick Mlb - May 02, 2008

We went 3-1 yesterday for +6.9 units pushing us to +17.1 units (59%) over the past week. Today we have seven picks.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Seattle at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +133 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4)

What's up with the AL East? Boston and New York are struggling while the perennial bottom-dwellers are looking down on them. New York has lost six of their last eight games and tonight must face Erik Bedard who has owned them (lifetime 1.64 ERA vs. the Yanks). Overall Bedard is undefeated with a 2.04 ERA and is coming off a gem vs. Oakland in which he gave up just two hits in over six frames. To make matters worse for the home team, they will be without A-Rod and Posada. Sure, New York has Wang on the mound, but his team is averaging just 4.3 runs per game this season and only 3.3 per game vs. southpaws! Seattle's offense hasn't been very good either but one stat of note is that they average just 4.7 strikeouts per game. Why is this of note? New York is already 1-8 this season vs. teams that strikeout less than six times per game. Over the past two seasons, the Yankees are 9-18 vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.20 or better. With Bedard sporting a 9-2 mark the past two seasons as a dog of +100 to +150, we like the Mariners here.

The Blue Jays offense has staggered the entire season, and recently those struggles have grown. The Jays have only plated 25 runs in their last 10 games, good for just 2.5 rpg. It is hard to find the win column like that. The result is a 2-8 mark over the last ten games. They have gone 15 games without topping the 5 run mark and are currently one of the worst teams in baseball against LHP at 1-5. Mark Buehrle had a horrible first outing, so his 5.65 ERA on the season is a bit distorted. He has pitched to a 3.67 ERA since. Shaun Marcum has pitched well for the most part, but the Jays can't score. They have lost three of his five starts, mainly because they produced just 4 total runs in the losses. It's hard to back a team that has been in a prolonged offensive slump, vs a top flight LHP, which has magnified the Jays struggles. We will back the White Sox to grab one on the road.

The Red Sox offense has really fallen off. Fourth in the league in runs scored in 2007, they are averaging just 4.5 per game this year. Against right-handed pitchers they are getting just 4.1 per game. In the first series with the Rays, the Sox got just 5 total runs. Since then the Red Sox faced Toronto, scoring just 3 total runs in three games. Edwin Jackson has pitched to a 3.86 ERA thus far, allowing just 23 hits in over 30 innings. His team is averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road and they own a 12-7 mark thus far vs. right-handed pitchers. There is no reason why Tampa Bay can't win this game and at this line there is tremendous value on the Rays.

Tim Hudson is still a good major league pitcher, but not what he once was. His first seven seasons he was 106-48. His last three years he has gone 32-24. All of his first five years, his hits allowed were less than innings pitched. In his last five, all but one have shown his hits allowed over innings pitched. His strikeout totals are way down the last few years, with this year being the lowest yet. He just doesn't have the same stuff, but is still a good pitcher. Edinson Volquez has really blossomed. He has yet to give up more than one run in any start, and no more than five hits. He has yet to give up 10 hits or more in any big league start, which is 19 in a row, so the stuff is certainly there, and it is now being harnessed. Atlanta is a sub-.500 teams the past three seasosn as a favrotie of -100 to -150. We will ride the Reds with a pitcher that is well under the radar.

Livan Hernandez looks to redeem himself from an ugly performance last time out vs. the Rangers. In three home performances this year he's gone 6.7 innings per start and has allowed just three walks. The problem for Minnesota, of course, is their offense. The good news is they are batting .264 vs. RHP and the runs will start coming. They are getting 4.1 runs per game vs. division foers, against whom they are 9-6 thus far. The Tigers are just 39-44 the pats two seasons as a favorite of -100 to -150 while Hernandez is 9-2 as a home dog over that same span. We like the Twins at home tonight with him on the mound.

The Cards have allowed the fewest runs of any team this season (104). They ahve won five of their six three-game series at home this season and they start Adam Wainwright who is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA this season. This line isn't larger due to the Cubs' offensive success thus far but St. Louis certainly has the edge in this one. St. Louis is 12-6 at home and with Wainright pitching and a very solid bullpen to back him up (3.35 home ERA), this will be a tough one for the Cubs who are just 32-41 vs. winning teams under Lou Piniella.

The Rangers are sneaking under the radar after their poor start. Look out but they have won two straight and we like their chances at getting to three in a row for the first time this season. While most will look at their average offense over the course of the year, we  note that over their past seven games they have scored 6.0 runs per game. Versus the Twins on Sunday Vicente Padilla pitched a complete game giving up just seven hits and no runs. He's opposed by Joe Blanton who is just 2-4 thus far. Over the past three seasons, the Rangers are 15-8 vs. teams that outscore their opponent sby 1+ runs per game. Oakland is just 11-18 over that span vs. teams that are at .380 or worse. Texas is also 12-6 the past two seasons after allowing 3 or less runs last game. We think there is currently value on the Rangers and we'll look to grab it while it exists.

Results: 3-4

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out our updated mlb blog.
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• Don't forget to visit our baseball ATS standings.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 baseball season prior picks.
• Read our 2008 MLB betting preview here.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB sports handicapping philosophy.
• View our updated mlb baseball picks.
• Read our mlb sportsbook reviews here.
• Take a look at our MLB Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Read our MLB prior picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-01-2008
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-30-2008
Tom Gorzelanny pitched a bad team to an 8-9 record on the road last season, which means he keeps his team in games, and has posted an ERA under four over the last two seasons. The Mets have been in a ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-29-2008
Seattle has lost two straight series and have lost six of their last nine games. But, tonight they put Carlos Silva ont he mound. He's 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA. He's coming off an injury but we are...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-28-2008
Chicago goes for the series win with Javier Vazquez but they must get through Daniel Cabrera to get it. Cabrera is 2-0 and coming off a great performance on Wednesday in which he allowed just 2 runs a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-27-2008
It's been a long road trip thus far as Philly plays their seventh in a row away from home here. They have been very good on this trip and have won three straight and six of seven. Brett Myers has ...