Baseball Betting Free Pick - May 01, 2008

The close-but-no-cigar syndrom continues as Houston, at +160 blew two big leads and lost the game to a pitcher hitting a 2-run home run. That turned a winning day into a loser. We look to rebound with four picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at Florida (12:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Florida +125 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5)

This game looks too easy for Los Angeles. They are on fire while Florida has struggled and puts a rookie who's had no success on the mound. It looks too easy and that's a sign for us. Can the Dodgers win six straight and record their second straight sweep? Yes, but we think Florida staves it off. LA also puts a rookie on the mound in Hiroki Kuroda. He's been decent but stands at 1-2 and is coming off his worst start allowing 5 runs and 9 hits in six innings. The Dogers are a losing road team and they are just 3-5 in day games scoring 2.1 runs per game. If Badenhop gets into trouble, Florida's bullpen has been excellent, posting a 3.16 ERA. LA is just a bit too hot and that has to end. This line looks like a trap and we're gonna go the other way and back the home dog.

Zack Greinke has been great this year but his run support is obviously suspect. He'll be faced by Sidney Ponson who has something to prove after being recalled from AAA play. In his first start he gave up just one earned run and one walk in five and a third. The Royals average just 4.1 runs per game vs. righties and Texas is batting .290 for 5.0 runs per game at home. Over their last seven games they are hitting .311 for 6.6 runs per game! So in what could  be a close pitching matchup, we get a home team with a much better and hotter offense. KC hasn't performed well as a favorite and we don't think they should be in that roll today. We'll take the live home dog.

Yovani Gallardo outpitched Zambrano for the season last year, and so far he is doing it again. While not minimizing what Zambrano has done here, this is more of a testiment to what Gallardo has done. He is pitching to a 0.64 ERA thus far, and any time we can get a pitcher under the radar as a dog, we will gladly opt in. Zambrano has pitched well, and is off a good start, other than the 4 walks which is always key for him. He shut this Brewer team down for nearly 7 innings, before the pen coughed one up earlier in the season. We see the same possibility here with Gallardo capable of matching 0's with Zambrano.

Adam Eaton has some horrible numbers, but somehow in the end his teams win games when he is on the mound. Here is a pitcher that has pitched to an ERA of over 5 the last 3+ years, and over 6 last year, but his team's record in his starts is 44-28! The bottom line is winning, and even though he gets hit, he manages to stay in games. If you compare career numbers to Eaton and Wolf, there isn't much to live off, so we have a comparable pitching matchup, with the Phil's possessing a much more potent lineup and playing at home. The Padres are really struggling out of the gate, and are at the bottom of MLB in money lost if you backed them every game. We will ride the Phil's as a valued even money favorite at home.

Results: 3-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-30-2008
Tom Gorzelanny pitched a bad team to an 8-9 record on the road last season, which means he keeps his team in games, and has posted an ERA under four over the last two seasons. The Mets have been in a ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-29-2008
Seattle has lost two straight series and have lost six of their last nine games. But, tonight they put Carlos Silva ont he mound. He's 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA. He's coming off an injury but we are...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-28-2008
Chicago goes for the series win with Javier Vazquez but they must get through Daniel Cabrera to get it. Cabrera is 2-0 and coming off a great performance on Wednesday in which he allowed just 2 runs a...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-27-2008
It's been a long road trip thus far as Philly plays their seventh in a row away from home here. They have been very good on this trip and have won three straight and six of seven. Brett Myers has ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-April-26-2008
Cleveland is rolling having won four straight and they get to face Ian Kennedy who is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA. He's already given up 13 walks in 14 innings. A-Rod returned last game but it didn't ...