Free Baseball Pick - June 30, 2008

We split our picks yesterday to finish 3-3 for +1.4 units. Yesterday's win kept our run going to the tune of +103.2 units while hitting 59% over the last six weeks. Six MLB plays on tap today with two 4-unit picks.

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	130-90 last 220 picks	59%	+$10320
WNBA	24-15 last 39 picks	62%	+$3100
TOTAL			+$13420

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Boston at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boston +136 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5.4)

Ok, so the oddsmakers are now saying that Tampa Bay is for real, but let's not forget that so are the Red Sox. After slipping behind the Rays in the standings, we have to think the Sox will come into this series with a very focused mindest. Justin Masterson has given the Sox good outings in which he has yet to allow more than four runs and the Sox are 5-2 in his seven starts. James Shields has allowed four runs or more in four of his last 10 starts, and has failed to get out of the fourth inning in his last two appearances against the Sox this season, where he has pitched to a 21.20 ERA. The Sox always have value playing as a dog, and we like them in this spot.

Due to injuries and team slumps, the Indians have been punchless this season. They have already amassed a total of 52 games played scoring four runs or less. Facing Gavin Floyd won't make it much easier as Floyd has allowed more than four runs in just two of 15 starts. The White Sox may be a little flat here after pounding the Cubs over the weekend. Jeremy Sowers has made six starts and just one produced runs higher than this total. UNDER is the way to go in this one.

Even bad teams get on a little roll. The Mariners come home feeling good about themselves as they have now won five of their last six. Bats that were sleeping for most of the year have now produced six runs per game in these last six. The road has been a struggle for the Jays where they have posted wins in just two of their last 11 and the offense continues to struggle as they have been shutout six times already this season. Roy Halladay hasn't been the cure either, as the Jays have dropped his last three starts and are just 9-8 on the season with him on the hill. Seattle shows signs of being much closer to the team everyone expected, and this is a good spot as a valued home dog.

Roy Halladay is a good pitcher on a team with a bad offense and spotting a team +1.5 runs has not been working. Halladay has pitched in nine games this season where the Jays have won, but in five of those nine wins, there has been no margin for error as they won by just one run. That leaves the Jays at 4-13 in his 17 starts, playing to the -1.5 runline, so with the M's playing much better, they also get the call on the runline.

You gotta wonder what happened to Barry Zito landing in the NL and the Giants losing his first nine starts. Things have been a bit different results wise, as they are now 4-3 in his last seven starts, and he has had success against this Cubs' lineup pitching to a 3.15 ERA over his career. The Giants have been a much better team than the way they started, as they have now actually played over .500 baseball for 40 games. For the first time all season the Cubs have gone into a slide. They have dropped four straight games and are just 4-8 over their last 12. It hasn't been the best of years for Ted Lilly either, as he pitches to an ERA of close to five. Good opportunity for the Giants to steal one at home.

We also like the value on the San Francisco run line. Despite their overall success this season the Cubs are just 9-16 against the run line on the road after two straight road games. And, Zito is 28-18 at home to the run line vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game. With the Cubbies in the slide they are on, getting +1.5 on the home team at this small price is nice.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our blog baseball picks.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB Baseball lines.
• View our updated MLB ATS records.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 baseball picks results.
• Don't forget to read our 2008 season MLB baseball handicapping preview here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB sports handicapping philosophy here.
• View our updated free mlb baseball picks.
• View our updated baseball sportsbook.
• Check out our updated MLB Game Analysis.
• Check out baseball prior picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-29-2008
St. Louis broke a couple of streaks with their win yesterday. The win put an end to their three game slide and also ended KC's six-game winning streak. But let's not let one game cloud the sit...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-28-2008
Minnesota is sizzling right now posting yet another come from behind win last night over the Brewers to run their streak to 10 games and 12 of 13. How can there not be value on a home team as a slight...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-27-2008
For years Colorado has been bounced around on the road, and lately they have taken their biggest bounce. The Rockies are now 6-24 on the road over their last 30 games, and they have certainly seen som...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-26-2008
The Rays will look to sweep the Marlins on the road for the first time in the 11 year history of these two teams. Matt Garza has given the Rays’ rotation a lift, but almost exclusively at home. ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-25-2008
The Royals are a young team and carry the trademark of a young team. They are very fragile and that allows for some real highs and lows. This team has dropped seven in a row and 12 in a row have now w...