Free Baseball Picks - June 29, 2009

Yesterday, we notched our 12th winning day out of the last 17 as we finished 4-2, adding another +6 units to the coffers. Our MLB picks are now cruising at 59%, 50-35 for +31 units over the last three weeks. Four premium picks today.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	26-19 last 45 picks	58%	+$1830
MLB	50-35 last 85 picks	59%	+$3070
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$24680

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Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Minnesota at Kansas City (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City +125 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.8)

The Twins have not been good on the road this season, and with Nick Blackburn on the hill tonight for this one, those numbers get even worse. Blackburn has put up good numbers this season, entering this one with a 6-3 mark and 3.11 ERA. What doesn't show up in that record is the fact that the Twins are 3-6 on the season when he takes the mound on the road, and 8-20 for his career! Luke Hochover has not produced good numbers, but in his last four starts he has pitched three very good games, and in his last four starts has pitched to a 3.71 ERA. Hochover has been 5-1 starting after the Royals allowed two runs or less runs in their previous game. The Twins have also lost five of their last seven against the Royals. I'm going with the Royals in this one.

I shared my thoughts on the Royals moneyline here, but I also like them on the runline. The Twins have not been getting it done on the road this season at all, and over Nick Blackburn's career, they are just 8-20, or winning just 28.9% of the time. If you take out his two wins by a single run on the road, that makes them 6-22 against a would be -1.5 runline, or covering just 21% of the time. This certainly presents some value on the runline here, so I'll go with the Royals on the runline.

It has been a long time since the Pirates have put together a winning season, so it is easy for the oddsmakers and public to dismiss this team. This year’s Pirates are a much better team than what we have seen in the past two decades, and that holds true especially at home where they are an above average 21-14. The Pirates aren't winning close games at home, they have won their 21 at home by a combined score of 134-58, and if you take their home wins, 19 of 21 have been by two runs or more. The Cubs have really been a far below average team on the road at 14-24. Rich Harden has allowed 13 HRs in just 60 innings this season, and his walks total is very high as well at 30. The Pirates are now 5-0 in Duke's last five starts at home, and those five games have produced a combined score of 40-15 in favor of the Pirates. I will go with Pittsburgh on the runline here.

The San Diego Padres have most definitely been a tale of two teams this season. There is the road version of this team that is a very disappointing 12-26, but then there is the home version, that is a very good 21-15. The Padres are giving up five runs per game on the road, but just four at home. The Astros have exactly the opposite happening in their games as they allow 4.5 at home, but five on the road. Roy Oswalt has not been pitching well this season, and his last five starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 have resulted in four Astros losses, and the Astros have dropped five of their last six series openers as well. The Padres are now 5-1 in Geer's last six starts as a home dog, and overall the Padres have taken six straight against the NL Central Division. I like San Diego on the runline here.

Results: 2-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-28-2009
Philadelphia's bats have been alive this season but they've cooled of late. In their last eleven games, they put up 10 runs twice (including last game). In the other nine games they averaged j...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-27-2009
The Minnesota Twins will go with Kevin Slowey this afternoon against the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer. Solwey has a deck full of aces so far as he is 10-2 on the season despite an average ERA of 4...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-26-2009
The Tigers have made a nice run as they have now won seven straight games. What doesn't show up is the last six of those were at home where they have been good all year, but in their previous seve...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-25-2009
Chad Billingsley has established himself as a solid pitcher and will face the White Sox this afternoon in Chicago. The problem is the Dodgers just haven't been good on the interleague road, as the...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-24-2009
It has been a challenging year for Jon Lester, who looked like he was ready for a long career of winning big but has stumbled and taken a step back in '08. He is just 5-6 on the season and has pit...