Mlb Picks - June 28, 2009

We went 4-2 yesterday as we've now won 11 out of the last 16 days, grabbing +25 units over that time. Today we have six MLB picks...

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	25-19 last 44 picks	57%	+$1540
MLB	46-33 last 79 picks	58%	+$2490
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$23810

 

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Philadelphia at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 10 -140 (risk 2 to win 1.4)

Philadelphia's bats have been alive this season but they've cooled of late. In their last eleven games, they put up 10 runs twice (including last game). In the other nine games they averaged just 2.7 runs per game! In interleague play, they are averaging nearly a full run less per game than their season average. As stated, they are off a 10-run game. The last three times they scored 7+ in a game they came out the next game and scored three runs, two, and one. The Blue Jays have also averaged under their average in interleague games. Both Jamie Moyer and Brian Tallet have been solid this season. The Philly's bullpen has put up a 3.52 ERA on the road while Toronto's has posted a 3.55 ERA at home. The Phils have gone 36-18 UNDER the past two seasons against starting pitchers who allow fewer than six hits per start and Moyer has gone 26-11 UNDER in interleague play over the past twelve seasons. I like this one to go UNDER.

Zack Greinke started the season on fire, posting eight wins in his first ten starts and putting up a ridiculous 0.84 ERA over that span. Then something happened which we see often in sports - regression to the mean. Greinke is good but not that good, and over his next four games he went 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA. He pitched well last outing but the fact remains, he's still overrated. The Royals are 2-5 in their last seven games averaging just 3.0 runs per game. They are averaging 3.4 runs per game on the road on the season. They are 13-31 since early May - the worst record in the American League by far. They do not deserve to be laying this kind of wood on the road. Especially against a Pittsburgh team that scores nearly five runs per game at home and has posted a 21-13 mark here (22-12 against the run line). The Pirates are 5-1 in their last six, putting up 5.6 runs per game in the process. While the Pirates can win this, Greinke has been good. But to ask the Royals to put up enough runs to win on the road by 2+ runs is really asking a lot. KC is 16-25 on the road against the run line the past two seasons after 4+ straight road games. They are 4-11 this season after three straight losses. Even with Greinke on the mound, the Royals are just 3-11 against the run line on the road the past two seasons when coming off a loss. The Pirates are 10-1 vs. the run line at home in June and I look for that to go t 11-1 today.

This looks like a pretty even matchup between a 35-36 team and a 36-38 team. Both pitchers have been very good. Zambrano has the name but I like Danks here. He's got a higher overall ERA, but at home he's been very good and over his last three starts he's put up a 2.53 ERA. The Cubs average just 3.9 runs per game on the road and the White Sox bats have been alive of late (6.3 runs per game over their last seven games). Coming off a close one-run loss, the Cubs are just 7-18 vs. the run line on the road the past two seasons. In games with low totals (under nine), the White Sox are 18-8 this year vs. the run line. Over the past two seasons, the Sox are 18-7 against the run line at home after a high scoring game (8+ runs). The Cubs have especially struggled this season vs. the run line when facing a good pitcher, going 4-14 against pitchers that average 5+ strikeouts per start. I like the value here on the White Sox -1.5 runs.

Milwaukee goes for the sweep and I like them to get it win some cushion. Outside of a fluky 2-7 run prior to this series, the Brewers have gone 18-9 at home this season. The Giants are just 15-22 on the road this season, averaging 3.4 runs per game so Milwaukee likely won't have to score too much here to get a 2+ run win. Versus southpaws this season the Brewers have excelled, scoring 5.2 runs per game. Jeff Suppan hasn't been great, but he's been better than Jonathan Sanchez. And, the Brew Crew has one of the better bullpens in baseball. At home this season, they have allowed just 37 runs in over 118 innings of play (2.81 ERA). When facing teams that average 1+ home runs per game this season, the Brewers are just 24-27 vs. the run line. But against poor-power teams like San Francisco, they are 16-7. I like the Brewers to get it done here.

Francisco Liriano has gone 3-8 with a 5.88 ERA. On the road his ERA is 6.32. Joel Pineiro has a losing record but that's no fault of his own. He's put up a 3.40 ERA overall, 2.32 at home and 1.61 in his last three starts! The Twins are averaging just 4.1 runs per game on the road and 3.9 per game in day-games. Dating back to last season, they are just 16-27 against the run line on the road in day games. Over that same span, the Cardinals are 19-10 vs. the run line at home coming off a win by 2+ runs. With this pitching matchup, I like the Cards at home on the run line.

The Angels are a winning team and the Diamondbacks are not. On the road the Angels are 20-17 while Arizona is horrible at home at 15-27. Against the run line, LA is 21-16 on the road this season while the D-Backs are 13-29. The Angels are killing it in interleague play, putting up 6.2 runs per game on their way to a 12-5 mark. With Schrezer toeing the rubber, Arizona is 5-16 against the run line over the past two seasons. Meanwhile, with Palmer on the mound, the Angels are 9-1 vs. the run line this season! And, Arizona is just 8-21 this season at home vs. the run line when facing a RHP. LA gets the call on the run line here.

Results: 4-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-27-2009
The Minnesota Twins will go with Kevin Slowey this afternoon against the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer. Solwey has a deck full of aces so far as he is 10-2 on the season despite an average ERA of 4...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-26-2009
The Tigers have made a nice run as they have now won seven straight games. What doesn't show up is the last six of those were at home where they have been good all year, but in their previous seve...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-25-2009
Chad Billingsley has established himself as a solid pitcher and will face the White Sox this afternoon in Chicago. The problem is the Dodgers just haven't been good on the interleague road, as the...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-24-2009
It has been a challenging year for Jon Lester, who looked like he was ready for a long career of winning big but has stumbled and taken a step back in '08. He is just 5-6 on the season and has pit...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-23-2009
What should be a classic pitchers duel, gives an edge to the +1.5 runline here on the Cubs. Carlos Zambrano has given up just a tick above 1.5 runs a game over his last three starts, so it would stand...