Baseball Prediction - June 27, 2008

After our 2-0 performance on our twin 4-unit picks on Wednesday, we dropped both 3-unit picks yesterday. Today we are back with a stacked MLB card of eight plays including a 4-unit pick. Over the last six weeks our MLB picks are +104.7 units and hitting 60% (121-80).

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	121-81 last 202 picks	60%	+$10470
WNBA	17-12 last 29 picks	59%	+$1350
TOTAL			+$11820

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Colorado at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Detroit -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)

For years Colorado has been bounced around on the road, and lately they have taken their biggest bounce. The Rockies are now 6-24 on the road over their last 30 games, and they have certainly seen some mediocre pitchers in that stretch, but still can't find the win column. At this stage of Tigers’ rookie starter Ed Bonnis’ career has to be considered mediocre, but as we pointed out that doesn’t that seem to matter to the Rockies when on the road. We think 6-24 says that pretty clearly. When you add in the fact that the Tigers are now 13-4 in their last 17, and playing like the championship team everyone thought they were at the beginning of the season, it is hard to resist a 6-5 favorite here in terms of odds.

The Orioles inexplicably won two of three vs. the Cubs for a series win. The O's are playing well but well enough to be favored here on the road? Yes, the Nats have problems but they are at home and we like the pitching matchup. Odalis Perez has a respectable 4.09 overall ERA which is 2.56 at home! Facing him is Daniel Cabrera who not only has a higher overall ERA but he owns a sky-high 6.88 ERA over his last three starts. He is 3-12 the past decade in inter-league play. The Orioles are just 44-73 vs. LHP the past three seasons. We'll fade the Orioles here at a nice price.

We might sound like a broken record here but the Royals are a young team with a fragile ego. They have already proven that with losing streaks of seven and 12 games on the season. The flip side of that is what is currently happening as they have won five straight and 11 of 12. They now have won five straight for the third time this season. The ego is healthy now, and that's when they win games. Gil Meche closed April with nearly an 8 ERA, and he has since gotten it below 5 with some good outings and has his confidence restored. Joel Piniero has given the Cards more than we thought they were getting. Even with that said they have still dropped his last five starts due in part to a bullpen that has allowed three additional runs a game in those starts. Kansas City is playing with energy and Meche has been the $11 million pitcher they signed, so we take the Royals here.

This game has our attention. We have a team that has run off nine-straight wins, playing at home and could move into first place in the AL Central with a win at less than 6-5 favorites? The Twins have won these nine games by a tally of 54-19 or four runs a game. No team has produced more than three runs a game against them, and Nick Blackburn has allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts at the Dome. Another footnote here is the Twins have been dominating the NL to the tune of 40-12 over their last 52 games, and they are 40-15 in their last 55 as a favorite in interleague play. The Brewers have struggled to a 5-12 mark in their last 17 against RHP. The Twins have yet to lose at home this year in interleague play, and have put 20 of their last 24 in the win column against the NL at home. Hot Twins sizzle to their 10th straight win.

The Padres continue to swoon. They did make a 13-6 run, but have since given it all back and then some going 1-9 over their last 10. The problem continues to be their inability to score, as they reached 33 games on the season scoring three or less last night and have done so now for four straight games. The Mariners haven't given much to be excited about except for the fact they have now gone 6-6 in their last 12 on the road, which sure shows a lot of growth for a team that took 27 games to win their first seven on the road. These are two bad teams, but with one playing better than the other. With the Padres favored off a 1-9 run, and 19-42 outside of their 13-6 streak, the value is all over the Mariners here.

The Angels’ Joe Saunders looks to become the first 12-game winner of the '08 season. Saunders has shown to be a quick starter as he was out of the gate last year with an ERA under three in late June that ended in the 4's. In '06 he posted an ERA of three over the first half of his 12 starts, but finished in the 4's. This year the ERA that was once a solid two, has risen to over three. Are we seeing the same career long trend? We think so. But, we still like the Angels here. The Dogers are 3-9 in inter-league play thus far and have lost nine of the last eleven in this series. The Angels have the best road record in the league at 26-13 and the Dodgers are averaging just 4.0 runs per game at home. Saunders feasts on low-octane teams like the Dodgers as he is a perfect 9-0 dating back to last season vs. teams that average under 1 home run per game. We like the Angels here. In addition, we like the OVER. The Dodgers have established one trait that covers over 80 games. They have played OVER to the tune of 49-24-3 as a home dog. We like the value set from both sides here, and see this one going OVER the total as well.

We are also going to back the Angels on the -1.5 run line here. The Angels are 18-12 this season to the run line after a loss including 8-1 after a one run loss. With Saunders on the hill, the Angels are 12-3 the past two season vs. the run line after a loss. The Dodgers are 12-15 this season to the +1.5 run line. The past two seasons they are 7-20 to the run line in inter-league play. Over that same span, they are 4-17 vs. the run line to AL teams allowing under 4.8 runs per game.

Results: 5-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-26-2008
The Rays will look to sweep the Marlins on the road for the first time in the 11 year history of these two teams. Matt Garza has given the Rays’ rotation a lift, but almost exclusively at home. ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-25-2008
The Royals are a young team and carry the trademark of a young team. They are very fragile and that allows for some real highs and lows. This team has dropped seven in a row and 12 in a row have now w...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-24-2008
The Tigers were a dormant team that everyone was waiting on to explode at some point in the season and that time is now. The Tigers' offense has come alive and over the last 15 games they have pos...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-23-2008
The Angels have been playing well on the road winning 12 of their last 15. John Lackey has made quality starts in all of his seven appearances, so what is not to like about the Angels here? Jason Berg...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-22-2008
The Twins have caught fire as they have now posted wins in eight of their last 10 games, five in a row and the first two in this series. The pitching has been outstanding as they have allowed just nin...