Baseball Prediction - June 23, 2008
We picked up the 3-0 sweep yesterday for +8.9 units. The win boosted us to +88.8 units while hitting 60% (114-77) over the last five and a half weeks. Three plays today with a 4-unit pick.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Washington (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Washington +1.5 runs -105 (runline) (risk 4 to win 3.8)
The Angels have been playing well on the road winning 12 of their last 15. John Lackey has made quality starts in all of his seven appearances, so what is not to like about the Angels here? Jason Bergman has shown signs of becoming a good pitcher in spite of the record. Bergman has pitched to a 3.07 ERA in his last seven starts, and in four of those he has allowed one run or less. An outing like that guarantees a cover on the runline, and at home with even odds we see value here. There has been a history of teams entering a second road trip that plays heavily into the Angels struggling here, so we are taking the Nats on the runline.
Game: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +106 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.2)
It would be easy to look at the Braves overall record and discount this line having any value facing Ben Sheets. The fact is that the Braves are 27-12 at home and 4-1 when posted as a home dog. They have been a dominating team at home and have taken out some of the best pitchers the NL has to offer. The Braves beat Santana twice and once each over Brandon Webb and NL ERA leader Edinson Volquez at home this season. While Ben Sheets has been superb, so were the other aforementioned pitchers and they left Atlanta with a loss. Jo Jo Reyes is certainly capable of keeping the Braves in this one as he has allowed two runs or less in six of his 10 starts. The value is on Atlanta here.
Game: Colorado at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -108 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.8)
The Royals are a young team, and because of it they are very streaky as well. They have dropped 12 straight and on another occasion lost seven straight, but have also gone 6-2, 6-1, and are currently on an 8-2 run. When they’re good they’re really good, bur when they’re bad, they’re really bad. They have averaged outscoring their opponent by 1.7 runs per game during this stretch. Colorado has just never been good on the road and their recent 6-20 run has done little to prove otherwise. Jeff Francis carried this team last year, but with an ERA in the 5's and the Rockies winning in just five of his 15 starts there is nothing to get excited about from a Colorado perspective. Brian Bannister has been at his best pitching in Kansas City where the Royals are 5-2 in his seven home starts. With the Royals playing at their best, and Colorado finding the win column on the road just six times in their last 26 games Kansas City is the choice here.
Results: 2-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-22-2008
The Twins have caught fire as they have now posted wins in eight of their last 10 games, five in a row and the first two in this series. The pitching has been outstanding as they have allowed just nin...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-20-2008
Everyone has been waiting for the Yankees to turn the corner, and apparently they now have. The Bombers have now won seven straight. The Reds on the other hand, are riding their worst streak of the se...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-19-2008
The Reds Aaron Harang has had a nightmarish season so far. When he pitches well, the Reds don't score or the pen coughs it up. The problem is, he is also not pitching like he was last year when th...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-18-2008
You have to look at Barry Zito from the standpoint that he is a 115-86 career pitcher with a CY Young award under his belt. He has also had success against the Tigers where he has a 2.68 ERA in over 9...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-17-2008
The Yankees always seem to be overpriced on the line, but also in totals because of the perception of them being a scoring machine. The fact is that the Yankees have scored two runs or less ...
