Baseball Betting Picks - June 20, 2008

Nailed the huge dog win with the Dodgers (+179) over the Reds yesterday for +5.4 units. Today we are back with five plays. We are up +84.7 units and hitting at 60% (109-74) over the last five weeks. 

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cincinnati at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Yankees -148 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9 -130 (risk 3 to win 2.3)

Everyone has been waiting for the Yankees to turn the corner, and apparently they now have. The Bombers have now won seven straight. The Reds on the other hand, are riding their worst streak of the season having now dropped five straight. So this says the Yankees at their peak against the Reds at their worst, played at the Stadium is a small to medium favorite? Don't see it that way. After a poor start Mike Mussina is 9-1 with a 3.25 ERA in his last 10 and has been a surgeon to the corners of the plate allowing just eight walks over his last 61 innings. The pitching matchup is a wash; the Yankees have the home field and the better pen. The Reds have already blown 8 of 21 save opportunities while the Yankees have converted the highest percentage in baseball with Rivera 20 of 20. This game should also be short on runs as Volquez has pitched in games that featured the opponent scoring three runs or less in 12 of 15 starts while Mussina has pitched in games ended with less than nine runs scored in 9 of his 14 starts. Yanks and the UNDER here.

The Birds are hot again having won five of six and 11 of their last 16. The Birds have won two of the three games started by Radhames Liz, who is yet to allow more than four hits in any game he has started - certainly capable of keeping the Birds in position to win. Jeff Suppan has provided many quality starts for the Brewers, but there is always the question of the bullpen which has allowed 31 runs in his 14 starts or more than two additional runs a game as well as 11 blown saves. Think this game is a toss up, so the value rides with the O's here.

The Tigers have won eight of their last nine games while the Pads have lost four in a row. Yes, Maddux "should" be better than rookie Eddie Bonine. But, the fact remains that Bonine is 1-0 while Maddux is 3-5. The problem for Maddux lies in run support. The Padres average just 3.7 runs per game at home. They are 2-7 in interleauge play, averaging 3.6 runs per game. In night games this season, they are averaging just 3.4 runs per game. Detroit is killing the ball as they have scored 5.9 runs per game on their winning run. The last three seasons, the Tigers are 14-1 vs. NL teams that average under 4.4 runs per game! They are 20-7 overall the past two seasons in interleague play and 12-1 after allowing under 3 runs in two straight games. San Diego is 2-11 this season after a close one-run loss. We like the dog here.

Both of these teams have overachieved on the season and bring identical 39-33 records into this matchup. The Marlins’ offense has been a big surprise as they have produced just under five runs a game. The Marlins have held serve on the road hovering around the .500 mark while the A's have won at home they haven't shown any kind of dominance. The offense has been limited to one run or less over five of their last 12, and it seems to be the sticking point to this team’s ability to rise higher. It shows up the most in the fact that Rich Harden, who has been great, has pitched to five no decisions in nine starts, showing the glaring weakness of the A's inconsistent offense. The Marlins have plated four or more runs in 15 of their last 19 games which against a struggling offensive team keeps them in games. A little too much to be laying regardless of the presence of Harden. The Marlins have already posted wins over the likes of Martinez, Haren, Webb, Oswalt, Hamels and Hudson this season, so at this price there is certainly lots of value, so they get the nod here.

Results: 2-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-19-2008
The Reds Aaron Harang has had a nightmarish season so far. When he pitches well, the Reds don't score or the pen coughs it up. The problem is, he is also not pitching like he was last year when th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-18-2008
You have to look at Barry Zito from the standpoint that he is a 115-86 career pitcher with a CY Young award under his belt. He has also had success against the Tigers where he has a 2.68 ERA in over 9...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-17-2008
The Yankees always seem to be overpriced on the line, but also in totals because of the perception of them being a scoring machine. The fact is that the Yankees have scored two runs or less ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-15-2008
...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-14-2008
The Red Sox are a completely different team on the road, as they are in Fenway. While they are winning at an 80% clip at home (28-7), they have been dreadful on the road winning just 40% (14-21). They...