Free Baseball Picks Premium Newsletter June 20, 2007

Tough losing day yesterday as Tampa Bay blew an 8-2 lead, losing in the bottom of the tenth inning as we ended up 1-2 for the day. Three picks tonight.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Tampa Bay at Arizona (3:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Tampa Bay -106 (risk 4 to win 3.8)

The D-Rays pen let another get away last night. One of the reasons Shields has had success for Tampa Bay is because he pitches deep into games and limits the exposure of the Rays middle relief. Shields has completed seven innings in 10 of his last 11 starts and has pitched an average of just shy of eight innings in those 11 starts. It is the difference between him and Kazmir, both quality starters. But the fact he pitches deep into games is why he is 6-1 because the D-Rays can swing the bats. Micah Owings has pitched better on the road than at home, where the D-Backs are just 2-4 in games he has appeared in. The odds-makers are speaking loud here as the D-Rays are an ever so slight favorite on the road vs. a decent team, and we agree.

Jeremy Bonderman is living the good life. The Tigers have scored an unbelievable 80 runs in his last eight starts, good for 10 per game. It is easy to see why Bonderman is 7-0 on the season. What has slipped under the radar in the perfect record and the wins, is the fact he has pitched bad after an early season goood start. He has been touched for five earned runs or more in four of his last eight starts. Most recently he surrendered 4 HR's. His last 50 innings have seen him deliver 27 earned runs, good for a 4.86 ERA, and he has also allowed more hits than innings pitched. The Tigers unloaded their bats yesterday, piling on 15 runs. That kind of output has not been good for teams in their next game, as they have a losing record and big negative units. Mike Bascik's numbers don't jump off the page, but he has actually out-pitched Bonderman at 4.59 when compared to Bonderman's last eight starts. He has also not surrendered more than 3 earned runs in all but one of his starts. The Nats can be pesky at home and the setting is ripe for the dog win here.

The "Halladay" is over so to speak, for opposing hitters as Roy Halladay has his stamina and arm strength back. The Blue Jays are 46-17 in his starts over the last three years and 24-8 at home. It is also no secret that the Jays smack around LHP. While they stand 20-29 vs. RHP while they are good vs. LHP (13-7). Hong Chih Kuo has pitched superb but we are not fooled by his gem vs. a struggling Mets team that has found it difficult to score runs. Kuo is a converted reliever and has pitched more innings in his last two starts than at any point, and this is where that catches up to a converted pitcher. The Dodgers scored double digit runs last night and that usually spells doom the next game as well. Collectively these teams have dumped 11.35 units on the season in their next game. We like the Jays with Halladay as they have won three of every four starts he makes at home over the past three years.

Results: 1-2

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-14-2007
The Seattle Mariners have probably been the biggest surprise so far this year. They have played well and have been hot lately. However, today they have Jeff Weaver on the mound and they will have to s...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-13-2007
The Chicago White Sox simply can't hit. They have a team average of just .232 and in the last week have hit even worse than that while the bullpen has collapsed as well. Chicago has now lost 14 of...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-12-2007
Kelvim Escobar seems to finally be over his elbow problems that set him back in 2005 and plagued him last year as well. He has been pitching great this year, and in his own words claims he is feeling ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-11-2007
The Mets will make the long trip to LA from Detroit where their woes have continued. The Mets have now dropped 6 of 7, and everything seems to be going wrong. They get good pitching - the hitting...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-10-2007
Andrew Miller impressed against the Cards but this is not the Cards. The Mets offense is superior to that of St. Louis and Miller won't be able to keep it in check today. And he won't be able ...