MLB Baseball Premium June 19, 2007

1-2 yesterday and 136-87 on the regular season to-date. Three picks tonight.

WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	136-87 last 223 picks	61%	+$6030
TOTAL			+$6030

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Boston at Atlanta (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +120 (risk 3 to win 3.6)

The Red Sox are just 8-10 in their last 18 games and have been inconsistent on offense, which for the most part is not producing runs. Tim Hudson has not allowed a HR in over 30 innings and is coming off a zero earned run outing. He has apparently recovered from pitching poorly in his previous starts. Josh Beckett has been the beneficiary of a lot of runs. The Sox have averaged about 7 runs per game in his starts, and lately Beckett has not been at his best. He has worked 19 innings in his last three starts giving up 23 hits and 12 earned runs good for a 5.60 ERA. The Braves have won three straight at home. With the Sox showing signs of struggling at the plate and facing a top flight pitcher, we will ride the home dog here.

Tampa Bay has never lost to Arizona and we like that streak to continue. J.P. Howell goes for the D-Rays. He has been good in two of his three starts. He allowed just one run in eight innings in his opener vs. Kansas City and is coming off another superb effort in his last start vs. San Diego - a game in which he allowed just one earned run in seven innnings. Overall he sports a 3.60 ERA. He's facing Doug Davis who has been steadily getting worse (5.40 ERA his last three starts). With him on the mound facing a losing team, the D-Backs are just 6-15 the past two seasons. Tampa Bay, historically bad on the road, has been OK this season going 14-18. THey are getting 5.2 runs per game away from home. Arizona is averaging just 4.1 per game at home (3.9 the last seven games and 3.8 in interleague play). With Arizona posting a 5-18 mark at home in June games the past two seasons, we'll take the underdog D-Rays here.

We rarely pick favorites this large but we can't resist here. We think there is true value here as the Pads should be 3-to-1 favorites or more. The Orioles are on a free-fall. They have now lost eight in a row and 13 of 15. They have managed 4 runs or less in 13 of 15 games and now must go on the road against Jake Peavy. Peavy has simply been the best pitcher in baseball this season. The Padres are 14-6 in their last 20 at home and 7-1 with Peavy on the hill and 10-1 going back to the end of last season. Peavy has surrendered just 1 HR in 94 innings of work and should have no trouble holding down a listless Oriole attack.

Results: 1-2

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-14-2007
The Seattle Mariners have probably been the biggest surprise so far this year. They have played well and have been hot lately. However, today they have Jeff Weaver on the mound and they will have to s...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-13-2007
The Chicago White Sox simply can't hit. They have a team average of just .232 and in the last week have hit even worse than that while the bullpen has collapsed as well. Chicago has now lost 14 of...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-12-2007
Kelvim Escobar seems to finally be over his elbow problems that set him back in 2005 and plagued him last year as well. He has been pitching great this year, and in his own words claims he is feeling ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-11-2007
The Mets will make the long trip to LA from Detroit where their woes have continued. The Mets have now dropped 6 of 7, and everything seems to be going wrong. They get good pitching - the hitting...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-10-2007
Andrew Miller impressed against the Cards but this is not the Cards. The Mets offense is superior to that of St. Louis and Miller won't be able to keep it in check today. And he won't be able ...