Baseball Betting Picks - June 18, 2008

We lost 6.6 units last night. We are in a slump right now obviously. As we've always said, in a long season, these things will happen. We were on the best run ever, in any sport for a full month. It couldn't continue that way forever. Just ride this out keeping your bets at 1% of bankroll per unit. We'll turn it around - just have patience.

Tonight we like four plays...

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Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Detroit at San Francisco (3:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Francisco +139 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.2)

You have to look at Barry Zito from the standpoint that he is a 115-86 career pitcher with a CY Young award under his belt. He has also had success against the Tigers where he has a 2.68 ERA in over 90 innings of work against them. He has also allowed three runs or less in six of his last eight starts, and is capable of a gem any time he takes the ball. Armando Galaragga has pitched well over his head after a 6+ ERA last season. The Tiger pen has still struggled, and allowing over two additional runs a game in his starts. The Tigers are a poor road team at 13-22, and to be this big a favorite offers value as they hit just .237 on the road. The Detroit pen is at 5.40 on the road as the Tigers score 4.8 at home but just 3.7 on the road. The Giants get the call here.

For all the reasons stated in our moneyline play we like the Giants on the runline as well. Road teams with bad bullpens (blowing 38%+) save opportunities against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.65 or greater for the season (Zito), have produced a 159-118 mark good for +65.5 units.

When healthy and pitching at home Ben Sheets is always worth a look. Sheets is having an All-Star season at 7-1 with a 2.72 ERA, producing quality starts in 11 of 13 outings as the Brewers have won four of his last five trips to the mound. Shawn Marcum has been equally impressive for the Jays as he brings an ERA of 2.43 to this contest. The problem is that the Jays are having trouble producing runs, losing four of his last five starts. Recently, the offense has been even worse scoring just 15 runs in their last seven games or just better than two per game. It has now left them scoring three runs or less in 36 games or 50% of the time this season. When facing a quality pitcher like Sheets, and not being able to score, makes it tougher still to find the win column, so we ride the Brewers at home.

Dan Haren faces his old team tonight. Haren has been excellent this season. Facing him is Joe Blanton who hasn't been winning, but has been pitching well. He's going nearly seven innings per start and has a respectable 4.23 ERA. The Athletics are hitting the ball well averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last seven. All season long they have performed well against RHP (5.2 runs per game and a 27-19 record). Arizona is not hitting well. They are averaging just 3.6 runs per game over their last seven and 2.6 in seven interleague games. The A's are 19-12 this season vs. winning teams while Arizona is just 7-16 against such teams! The D-Backs are just 2-19 since last season at home after a game in which they scored under two runs. Sure, Arizona has the pitching advantage here but this game also includes hitting. We like the Athletics as a dog.

Results: 1-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-17-2008
The Yankees always seem to be overpriced on the line, but also in totals because of the perception of them being a scoring machine. The fact is that the Yankees have scored two runs or less ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-15-2008
...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-14-2008
The Red Sox are a completely different team on the road, as they are in Fenway. While they are winning at an 80% clip at home (28-7), they have been dreadful on the road winning just 40% (14-21). They...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-13-2008
Baltimore hasn't gotten much done on the road, but they have been very tough at home with a record of 17-11. Brian Burres has also been much more effective at Camden Yards where he has logged 3 of...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-12-2008
The Pirates have become a force at home, as they have now gone 15-8 in their last 23 home games. Tom Gorzelanny has had a mediocre year, but always capable of a gem, especially at home where the Pirat...