Baseball Handicapping - June 17, 2008
We passed on MLB yesterday as there were only five games on the big board. Today we are back on the diamond with four picks. Over the last month our picks are still smokin' the books at a 61% win rate while racking up +92.6 units.
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Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: San Diego at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9.5 -125 (risk 3 to win 2.4)
The Yankees always seem to be overpriced on the line, but also in totals because of the perception of them being a scoring machine. The fact is that the Yankees have scored two runs or less 21 times already this season. Andy Pettitte has produced UNDER games in 20 of his last 28 starts, and on the season the Yankees are playing UNDER to a mark of 41-26-2. San Diego has no offense and they went through a major league first, winning four straight by 2-1 scores. Randy Wolf is hot right now allowing no more than two runs in each of his last five starts, so we will go UNDER here.
Game: Houston at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 10 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Garrett Olson has given Baltimore a lot of productive starts as he has worked in seven of nine games allowing three runs or less. His last six starts have shown two team totals of just 46 runs and not a single game has produced more than nine total runs. Brandon Backe has made eight starts on the road and in those games, the combined total runs scored has been just 54 or less than seven runs per game. Only one of those games has reached high enough to go over this total. That's a lot of games from both sides, and it shows these teams have difficulty producing runs, so we will play this one to fall short of the total.
Game: Florida at Seattle (10:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Florida +145 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.4)
As good as Felix Hernandez has been of late, the Mariners are still just a .500 team with him on the mound. The Mariners have had a horrible year and sit at 24-46 - the worst record in baseball. Playing home games has not eased the pain as they are just 14-23. The Marlins have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball as they are six games over .500 and have been able to hold their own on the road, just one game under .500. Scott Olsen has been every bit as good as Hernandez, pitching to an ERA in the low 3's, good enough for the Marlins to emerge victorious in nine of his 14 starts. This is just too much chalk for a poor team, and even with Hernandez, they are only a .500 team, so we ride the dog here.
Game: Detroit at San Francisco (10:15 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 8.5 -105 (risk 3 to win 2.9)
It has not been a picnic for Kenny Rogers and the Tigers. Rogers' last 12 starts have seen double-digit runs produced, as the Tiger offense has begun to show more life recently. Jonathon Sanchez has already pitched five games where one team has scored double digit runs. He has personally imploded for seven runs on three different occasions. The Giants are a team with little offense, but have found some lately, scoring 137 runs in their last 27 games or almost five runs per game. The Tigers' bats have come to life, so we play this one OVER the total.
Results: 1-3
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-15-2008
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-14-2008
The Red Sox are a completely different team on the road, as they are in Fenway. While they are winning at an 80% clip at home (28-7), they have been dreadful on the road winning just 40% (14-21). They...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-13-2008
Baltimore hasn't gotten much done on the road, but they have been very tough at home with a record of 17-11. Brian Burres has also been much more effective at Camden Yards where he has logged 3 of...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-12-2008
The Pirates have become a force at home, as they have now gone 15-8 in their last 23 home games. Tom Gorzelanny has had a mediocre year, but always capable of a gem, especially at home where the Pirat...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-11-2008
The Twins have fallen on hard times as they have now dropped six straight. Paul Byrd is pitching to a 1.89 ERA at home while Blackburn has post a 5.36 road ERA. Both of these offenses have strugg...
