Baseball Betting Pick - June 14, 2008

We went 4-3 yesterday but suffered a loss as our big picks fell. We're +102.5 units over the past month. Today we have four picks...

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Boston at Cincinnati (3:55 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cincinnati -140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)

The Red Sox are a completely different team on the road, as they are in Fenway. While they are winning at an 80% clip at home (28-7), they have been dreadful on the road winning just 40% (14-21). They look alluring as a road dog, but have dropped their last 5 in that role. Edinson Volquez is heading to the All-Star game, and may earn the starting pitching role. He leads the league in ERA at 1.56, and stands at 9-2. He has made all quality starts on the season and has yet to allow more than 3 runs in any game and that was just once. The Reds are a perfect 6-0 in his home starts, and at 21-12 on the season at home, this team plays well in front of the hometowners, and we will take them here.

Detroit has now seemed to have found their stride, as they have matched their season long winning streak of 4 games. The pitching has been outstanding and the bats are coming to life. They will call up Eddie Bonine to make his major league debut. Bonine was 9-2 at AAA Toledo and locates well as he had only walked 14 all season. The Dodgers have really struggled now for over 3 weeks and can't get anything going. The Dodgers are just 6-15 over their last 21 games and at the peak of that struggle is Brad Penny. Penny was almost automatic last season, but has been anything but this year with a 5-8 mark and an ERA hovering in the mid 5's. Small price here for a hot Tiger team at home.

Don't think too many would have imagined Baltimore being a .500 team after 66 games, but here we are and they keep playing better than advertised. They have had a most difficult home schedule, but still stand at 18-11. When they have played the sub-.500 teams at home they have completely dominated as they have logged an 8-1 mark so far against them. Now Radhames Liz has given the rotation another lift, he has pitched to a 3.48 ERA. Pittsburgh at 8-18 in their last 26 on the road is the same team all over again. Zack Duke and the Pirates are just 7-27 in his last 34 road starts, so there is only value on one side of this one and that is going with the O's at home.

Matt Cain has been a tough luck pitcher. Last year he pitched to a 3.65 ERA, but his record was 7-16. He has pitched 9 of his 14 starts allowing 3 runs or less this season, but yet has just 3 wins so the value in SF as a home dog is apparent. Rich Harden has pitched well for the A's as well, but there is a very telling stat that applies to this game. Home teams with a moneyline from -125 to +125 and starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.20-4.70 against a pitcher allowing 5.5 hits or less have torn the books apart, winning 63 of 85, or 74.1% of the time.  Hard to ignore and we will ride the Giants at home here.

Results: 2-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Check out mlb blog here.
• Take a look at our Baseball odds and lines here.
• Check out mlb against-the-spread records here.
• Updated today: 2008 MLB pick results.
• Hop over to our 2008 baseball gambling preivew here.
• Take a look at our Baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• View our updated mlb picks.
• Read our sports betting baseball here.
• Don't forget to read our MLB Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview here.
• Hop over to our MLB prior predictions here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-13-2008
Baltimore hasn't gotten much done on the road, but they have been very tough at home with a record of 17-11. Brian Burres has also been much more effective at Camden Yards where he has logged 3 of...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-12-2008
The Pirates have become a force at home, as they have now gone 15-8 in their last 23 home games. Tom Gorzelanny has had a mediocre year, but always capable of a gem, especially at home where the Pirat...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-11-2008
The Twins have fallen on hard times as they have now dropped six straight. Paul Byrd is pitching to a 1.89 ERA at home while Blackburn has post a 5.36 road ERA. Both of these offenses have strugg...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-10-2008
The Rangers have been a better team on the road this season than past editions, but Kevin Milwood has been dreadful when he takes the ball for the Rangers on the road. The Rangers have dropped 13 stra...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-09-2008
After a couple slugfests between these two teams, it is an early getaway day game, which often times allows for some impatient hitters in the box. Mike Mussina has pitched better than anyone expected ...