Major League Baseball Premium Picks Newsletter June 14, 2007

Got the sweep yesterday 3-0 for +9 units. Today we fire back with three selections with one afternoon game.

After yesterday's sweep, MLB picks winning at 62% (130-80) since the start of the season.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Seattle at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Chicago Cubs -141 (risk 3 to win 2.1)

The Seattle Mariners have probably been the biggest surprise so far this year. They have played well and have been hot lately. However, today they have Jeff Weaver on the mound and they will have to score a lot of runs off of pitcher in Jason Marquis who is having a good season. Weaver has pitched to an ERA of 12.46, and what is even worse is that the middle relief has allowed an additional 23 runs in his 7 starts. The Mariners have been outscored in his starts 59-19. Marquis has allowed one run or less in 8 of his 13 starts and the Cubs have won 7 of 11 by getting great pitching. The Cubs staff has allowed two runs or less in 7 of their last 11. The Cubs beat the Mariners yesterday and have a huge pitching mismatch today so we will ride them at home.

The Red Sox bats have really gone into a prolonged slump. It has led them to a 5-8 record over the last 13 games and has produced two runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. The BoSox have struggled on the road in the past, but come home to Fenway and start scoring again. It hasn't happened and that means this team is really struggling at the plate. Josh Beckett has performed brilliantly and stands at 9-0. He has gotten run support of four or more runs in every start so he has not had to pitch in many close games or from behind at all. That may change tonight. Colorado is a surging team and after a bottom of 8 games below .500, they now have won 15 of 23, and a win tonight lifts them to .500, so this is a big game for them. They have done it with a bullpen that features five pitchers not yielding a run in a week and just two runs overall, and a team that has hit .290 over the last 7 days. Jeff Francis has pitched very well and even better lately. He has completed 7+ innings in 7 straight starts and has allowed just 38 hits in his last 51 innings - better than Beckett, and has walked just 6 in his last 6 starts - better than Beckett. The Red Sox are struggling and lead the majors in plus units from a wagering standpoint, but are negative against LHP. Francis certainly can match 0's with Beckett, and we think the Rockies have a legitimate shot at winning here.

Rumor has it that Johan Santana is pitching through elbow problems and refuses to miss a spot in the rotation. His velocity has been down the last couple starts and so has his strikeouts. He will face Tim Hudson, who after a Cy Young-type start, has pitched poorly. The Twins were tough to beat at home last season, but since sweeping their first home series, they have gone just 15-16, and don't appear to be the same team. The Twins have already lost more Santana home starts than they did the prior two seasons and they are just 3-6 in his last 9 starts. Hudson is capable of out pitching Santana and this line is just way to high under the circumstances. The Twins are -10 units in their last 31 home games and have been over-priced all year. We like the Braves to beat an ailing Santana.

Results: 2-1

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-14-2007
The Seattle Mariners have probably been the biggest surprise so far this year. They have played well and have been hot lately. However, today they have Jeff Weaver on the mound and they will have to s...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-13-2007
The Chicago White Sox simply can't hit. They have a team average of just .232 and in the last week have hit even worse than that while the bullpen has collapsed as well. Chicago has now lost 14 of...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-12-2007
Kelvim Escobar seems to finally be over his elbow problems that set him back in 2005 and plagued him last year as well. He has been pitching great this year, and in his own words claims he is feeling ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-11-2007
The Mets will make the long trip to LA from Detroit where their woes have continued. The Mets have now dropped 6 of 7, and everything seems to be going wrong. They get good pitching - the hitting...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-10-2007
Andrew Miller impressed against the Cards but this is not the Cards. The Mets offense is superior to that of St. Louis and Miller won't be able to keep it in check today. And he won't be able ...