Free Baseball Picks - June 13, 2008

We went 4-2 yesterday for +5.1 units. Over the past month we are hitting 63% (98-58) for +105.2 units. Today we have 7 plays.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore -118 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

Baltimore hasn't gotten much done on the road, but they have been very tough at home with a record of 17-11. Brian Burres has also been much more effective at Camden Yards where he has logged 3 of his 4 wins. The Pirates have gone just 8-16 in their last 24 on the road and although Phil Dumatrait has pitched well for them he is still a pitcher with a 30% won-loss record for his career, with a career ERA hovering around the 6 mark. Baltimore will get it done at home tonight.

You can see the signs that this Indian offense, after struggling all season long, has begun to swing the bat and in a big way. Consider this. The Indians have now scored 75 runs in their last 11 games or an average of 6.8 per game. Their total in the previous 21 games was 77, so no doubt this team will begin winning at the rate everyone expected at the onset of the season. The Padres have been doing a lot of winning of late as they captured 7 of 8 at home, but now must travel where the results have been much different. The Padres are just 7-17 in their last 24 on the road and with the Indians heating up and playing at home we will take them here.

This moneyline might make sense last year, but it doesn't this year. Gavin Floyd is a likely All-Star candidate this season. He carries a 7-3 mark into this one with a nifty 3.10 ERA. Floyd has not only flirted with a no-hitter but has made 5 starts allowing 4 hits or less already. The White Sox have won 8 straight at home and 12 of 14 where they have been tough on opposing teams. For Colorado, and Jeff Francis, this season has been a complete reversal of fortunes. Francis won 17 games last year, but this year he has struggled the entire season with a 2-6 mark and the Rockies are just 4-9 in all of his starts, after posting a 22-12 mark in his starts last year. Rockies road woes, and Francis' struggles, puts the value on the Pale Hose here.

While Zach Greinke managed many good outings early and posted a 2.18 through mid May, he has not been nearly the same since. His last 4 starts include 21 runs in 24 innings, all Royal losses. The road has also been a lost cause for this team, as they have managed just 2 wins in their last 15 road games. Arizona has put 64% of their home games in the win column and although Doug Davies has been mediocre, most of his innings have been logged on the road, so we expect more from him here tonight. Very short price against a team that seldom finds the win column on the road, so the D-Backs get the nod here.

Have to salivate over this one. The Braves have been dynamic and exciting at home but on the road have resembled a AAA team. They now stand at 7-24 on the season, and they are coming up against a team that is red-hot. The Angels have won 8 of 10 and all season long they have pounded LHP to the tune of 14-2, the best in baseball. Then there's Jon Garland who closed April with a nearly 6 ERA, but has since gone 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA and the Angels have won his last 4 starts. Hard to imagine why this moneyline isn't in the 170-180 range, but the fact that it isn't will allow us to load up for 5 units on the Angels.

A very fitting matchup as the worst team in the NL, the Nationals, travel to Seattle to play the worst team in the AL, the Mariners. The Mariners have faced a rugged home schedule with few games against teams with losing records, so they have a chance e to grab a win here vs a Washington team that is futile on the road for many years now. Desperate for pitching they have stretched out R.A. Dickey to make a start tonight. Dickey has been superb out of the pen with an ERA in the mid two's. Shawn Hill has yet to record a win on the season and the Nats are 0-5 in his road starts. Good place for Seattle.

Had to wonder if Barry Zito was ever going to win a game this season as the Giants dropped his first 9 starts. Signs of a pitcher that has won 115 big league games with an ERA of 3.75 are starting to show as the Giants have now won 3 of his last 4 starts and overall the Giant offense has been clicking for just about 6 runs a game over their last 20. Oakland will counter with Greg Smith who has begun to struggle, allowing 11 runs in 11 innings over his last 2 starts. We like the Giants as a live home dog in this one.

Results: 4-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-12-2008
The Pirates have become a force at home, as they have now gone 15-8 in their last 23 home games. Tom Gorzelanny has had a mediocre year, but always capable of a gem, especially at home where the Pirat...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-11-2008
The Twins have fallen on hard times as they have now dropped six straight. Paul Byrd is pitching to a 1.89 ERA at home while Blackburn has post a 5.36 road ERA. Both of these offenses have strugg...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-10-2008
The Rangers have been a better team on the road this season than past editions, but Kevin Milwood has been dreadful when he takes the ball for the Rangers on the road. The Rangers have dropped 13 stra...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-09-2008
After a couple slugfests between these two teams, it is an early getaway day game, which often times allows for some impatient hitters in the box. Mike Mussina has pitched better than anyone expected ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-08-2008
The Red Sox have won seven of their last nine games. They have averaged 5.9 runs per game over that span and that includes one game in which they were blanked! They face Erik Bedard here who has the n...