MLB Baseball Premium Predictions Newsletter June 13, 2007

We went 2-1 last night including another underdog win for a +2.5 unit day. Today we have one afternoon game and two night games...

WUNDERDOG 2007 RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	127-80 last 207 picks	61%	+$5580
NBA	13-7 last 20 picks	65%	+$1820
TOTAL			+$7400

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia -116 (risk 4 to win 3.5)

The Chicago White Sox simply can't hit. They have a team average of just .232 and in the last week have hit even worse than that while the bullpen has collapsed as well. Chicago has now lost 14 of 17 and have managed just 35 runs in their last 13 games, good for 2.7 rpg. This team has been shutout five times already and has produced 3 runs or less in half their games and 2 runs or less in 22 of 61. John Danks gets the ball for the pale hose and he has been awful of late. Danks has not gotten out of the sixth inning in three straight starts. He has become bat shy, yielding 13 BB's in his last 20 innings along with getting ripped for 27 hits. He is backed by a bullpen that has killed the White Sox all season. This past week the White Sox pen has given up 15 runs in just over 16 innings. Danks' failures have been followed by a pen that has added 11 more runs in his last four starts, and the Sox are just 4-7 when he takes the hill. The weak White Sox line-up is further weakened by not having a DH playing on the road vs. a National League team and has produced just 3 runs in the first two games this series. Philadelphia was five games under .500 on May 8th. But they have been playing great baseball, jumping to three games over .500 with the win last night. Kyle Kendrick gets the nod in Garcia's spot for the Phils. Kendrick does not walk anyone, and is a sinkerball pitcher. The White Sox have difficulty getting a rally going with their weak attack, and all three runs in this series have come via the long ball. So having a sinkerballer on the mound with great control may further limit this struggling offense. Kendrick has allowed three HR's in 81+ innings in the minors. Look for Philadelphia to get the sweep today.

Jake Peavy is having a Cy Young type season while Edwin Jackson hasn't won a game in a year and a half in the big leagues. Tampa's pen does superb when Shields or Kazmir are on the hill because both are capable of pitching deep into the game and limiting Tampa Bay's weak middle relief. That isn't the case with Jackson, who has an ERA in the 7's himself. The pen has allowed 34 more earned runs on top of that in his 11 starts! There isn't much else to say about this one, except it is probably the greatest pitching and bullpen mismatch of the season to date and Tampa Bay is 5-28 in games that Jackson has appeared in over the last two years. Meanwhile San Diego is 10-3 in Peavy's starts this year. Sure looks like great value here.

Things have changed in the Big Apple. The Mets have reversed fortunes with the Yankees. The Yankees couldn't win and now look good, while the Mets looked like World Series Champions and now can't win. The Mets have lost 8 of 9 and in seven of those games have been held to 3 runs or less while giving up 4+ in 8 of the 9. The pitching has taken a sour turn and the bats have gone south. Brad Penny has been getting through hot line-ups with ease and the he will pose big problems for an ice cold Mets attack. Penny has given up 1 run or less in 9 of 13 starts and the Dodgers are 11-2 in his starts. Sosa has been a nice surprise for the Mets but he will not last in this form, and the Mets pen has been struggling in a big way. The Mets pen has been bad, allowing 18 earned runs in 16 innings this week outside of closer Wagner who has also blown a save. Look for the Dodgers to get the sweep today.

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