We rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units).
Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).

Game: New York Mets at Detroit (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Mets +108 (risk 3 to win 3.2)

Andrew Miller impressed against the Cards but this is not the Cards. The Mets offense is superior to that of St. Louis and Miller won't be able to keep it in check today. And he won't be able to out-pitch Tom Glavine. Glavine is proven and sports a 3.36 ERA in 13 starts. On the road it's 2.55. The Mets are 19-8 this season on the road. They are 59-40 the past two seasons vs. winning teams including 26-15 vs. elite teams that outscore their competition by 0.5+ runs per game. It's not often you get a pitcher this good, with an offense this good facing a rookie as an underdog. We'll take that value and back New York.

Jared Weaver comes in with a good 3.88 ERA (3.03 on the road). He's allowed just 24 earned runs in 55.7 innings pitched. Todd Wellemeyer counters for the Cardinals and he's been suspect in his two starts. He's lasted just 4.3 innings on average and given up 7 walks in just 8.7 innings. St. Louis has been very streaky this year and right now they are losing big (24 runs allowed in their last three games). LA is 30-11 this season as a favorite. With Weaver starting, they are 21-8 the past two seasons. And, when facing bad teams (46% or worse) this season, the Angels are 13-1. We'll back a great team vs. a struggling one here at a relatively low price.

Despite the 10 run explosion for Boston on Friday, the fact remains that both of these ballclubs are struggling offensively. And, both have very strong starters and superb bullpens. Randy Johnson has picked things up after a slow start. Over his last three starts he's allowed just 4 runs in 18 innings. Daisuke has had his ups and downs but has been very solid on the road, posting a 3.55 ERA. Boston's bullpen has been unreal. They are 20-3 saves including 11-0 on the road. Arizona is averaging just 4.1 runs per game at home. On the road the Red Sox are 22-9 UNDER this season including 12-2 UNDER vs. winning teams. Over the past two seasons, they are 11-1 UNDER on the road vs. poor power teams (averaging under 1 HR per game).