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Game: Philadelphia at Ny Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Ny Mets -151 (risk 4 to win 2.7)

It has become pretty evident as the season progresses that if you want to position yourself to win vs. the Phils, start a LHP. The Phillies potent offense is averaging 5.1 rpg overall. But when facing a LHP, that number drops to a pedestrian 4 rpg which is more than a run per game less. The Phils have faced a lot of lefties and have managed just 6 wins in 21 tries. They have performed !GOOD! vs. righties as they have scored 6+ runs in 19 games vs. RHP, and just 3 vs. LHP. The Mets have been just the opposite as they have chewed up LHP to the tune of 5.3 rpg and an 11-5 mark. The Mets are 26-12 over the last three years in Glavine's starts. Glavine is in the perfect spot. He no longer pitches deep in games, as he has gone 6 innings or less in 10 of his 12 starts. The Mets pen has allowed 0 runs in 8 of his 12 starts and that's getting 3+ innings of work per start as a rule. Jamie Moyer had a fantastic April but he has been on a steady decline since. His last four starts have seen him allow 18 earned runs in 24 innings, while serving up 7 HR'S. This a very low line for the Mets at home, especially under the pitching circumstances.

The Yankees are such a public team, no matter who they play or where, there is always opportunity for value. They are on the road vs. a !GOOD! pitcher, while they throw a rookie, and the game is considered virtually even. The White Sox are 28-13 in Buerhrle's home starts over the past three years. Buehrle has pitched very steady. He hasn't allowed more than 4 earned runs in any start and opponents have scored just 34 runs in his 10 starts (3.4 rpg). The Yankees will follow with another rookie in Tyler Clippard. The Yankees are 6-11 in their last 17 games starting a rookie pitcher and have allowed 40 runs in the last six starts. The Yankees have struggled with LHP all season as they are a lefthanded line-up, and that resulted in a bad 3-8 record. New York is not hitting, they are playing pourous defense, and the bullpen is extremely fragile. White Sox make it two straight.

Boston is a mentally and physically tired team right now, and it has manifested itself into the worst five-game stretch of the season. They are 1-4 and after a long game with NY on Sunday night, they travelled to Oakland to play in 11 innings last night. Matsuzaka will get the ball for the Sox tonight and that hasn't been good news of late. Matsuzaka opened looking like he was going to be a #1 type starter, allowing just 6 runs in his first three starts, striking out 24 in 20 innings. It has been much different over his last eight starts. He has thrown 52 innings and coughed up 33 runs with an ERA hovering around 6. And the strikeouts are down as well, the hit totals up, and he has had bouts with location problems. Oakland has now won four of their last five, and have allowed just 17 runs in 7 games on this homestand. Lenny DiNardo is a converted reliever, that was a hard-luck loser in his first start. He gave up just one earned run in 5+ innings, following a scorless 4+ inning relief appearance. He has allowed just 19 hits and 6 BB's in 25+ innings and the A's pen has been hot. This is a drastic overlay for a hot home team with a name pitcher, doing poorly, vs. a tired team.