Mlb Baseball Pick Online - June 03, 2008

We lost 5.8 units yesterday but remain up 84.5 units over the past three weeks. Tonight we have nine plays...

WUNDERDOG 2008 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
MLB	69-38 last 107 picks	64%	+$8450
NBA	30-22 last 52 picks	58%	+$1750
NHL	44-26 last 70 picks	63%	+$3480
TOTAL			+$13680

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Cincnnati at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -111 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Ken Griffey Jr. looks to become the sixth player to reach the 600-club tonight. He may or may not get it but what we are concerned with is the outcome of the game. We like the Phils at home behind Adam Eaton. Aaron Harang is having awful results at 2-7 overall and 1-4 on the road. Over his last three starts he is winless with a 6.61 ERA. The Phillies are licking their chops as this team can pound opposing pitchers. They average 5.7 runs per game at home on the season and over their last seven games they are getting an incredible 8.6 runs per game. The Reds are 9-20 on the road this season and just 6-20 the past two seasons on the road vs. high scoring teams (those averaging 4.8+ runs per game). Take the home team here.

We were on Texas in game one of this series yesterday as they lost big. Tonight we like their chances of returning the favor and evening the series. Sure, the Indians exploded last night for 13 runs. But let's look at the reality of this offense. They are averaging just 3.8 runs per game on the road this season. Texas put up 9 last night. That's more indicative of what we can expect from them as tehy average 5.9 per game at home. Is it more likely that Cleveland or Texas will get that kind offense again in game two? Right - Texas. Two untested pitchers go here as the Indians turn to Tom Mastny here who in two appearances gave up two earned runs in less than two innings. The Rangers counter with A.J. Murray who has given up the same two earned runs but in 5.3 innings pitched. Cleveland is just 11-18 this season vs. losing teams and we don't see them getting two in a row.

We like Texas' chance at a big win. The pitching here is about a wash and the offensive production difference is huge. Texas is at home, off a blowout loss. Home teams off a game with 17+ runs scored facing a team off a win by 4+ runs are 133-86 for +60 units on the run line the past five seasons. We'll take the Rangers -1.5 runs here for a nice payout.

By the way Ozzie Guillen is going off on his team and management, you wouldn't know that the White Sox are atop the AL Central standings. Guillen took apart his team and GM Sunday after a loss to Tampa Bay. Two very solid pitchers face off here. Gavin Floyd has a 3.22 ERA (2.35 at home). Zack Greinke has been a bright spot for the Royals, posting a 2.88 ERA. But, he's been slipping of late as his ERA over his last three starts has mushroomed to 5.68. The problem for Kansas City is offense as they average just 3.6 runs per game. In night games they get just 3.4 per game. This season they are 13-27 vs. teams that allow under 4.8 runs per game. We'll take the home team here.

Dontrelle Willis vs. a rookie. No contest, right? Well actually this rookie, Dana Eveland, has been excellent so far posting a 3.66 ERA (2.73 at home). Willis is coming off the disabled list as well. Detroit is 12-19 on the road averaging 3.7 runs per game. Oakland's offense hasn't been there all season but they just find ways to win (17-12 at home). Their pitching has been outstanding. Their bullpen owns a 2.84 home ERA and they have held opponents to just 3.2 runs per game here. The Tigers are 10-21 this season to a line of -125 to +125. We'll take the Athletics here.

The Cubs are for real. They own the best record in the majors and have won eight in a row. The offensive difference in this game is huge. The Cubs are averaging 5.7 runs per game and 6.6 per game vs. LHP. San DIego gets 3.7 per game and 3.6 vs. RHP. Wilfredo Ledezma is winless on the season and has posted a 7.50 ERA over his last three starts, going just 4.0 innings per start on average. This season the Cubs are 24-7 vs. low-power teams (those averaging under one home run per game). They are also 13-3 vs. teams who strike out 7+ times per game and 32-14 as a favorite. The Pads are 7-18 vs. winning teams and 9-22 as an underdog. Cubbies here.

What has happened to Jeff Francis? Colorado's 17-win ace from their World Series team last year is just 1-5 this season with a 6.12 ERA. In his 11 starts, Colorado is 3-8. The Rockies are 0-8 on their current ten-game road trip and they have lost 13 straight away from Coors Field. They average just 3.8 runs per game on the road. The Dogers are happy to see Francis, the southpaw, as they are averaging 6.3 runs per game this season vs. LHP. Brad Penny has had his own struggles, but the Dodgers bullpen has been awesome posting a 3.02 ERA (2.50 at home). The Rocks are 4-16 this season against teams with a bullpen ERA under 3.50. The Dodgers are 15-3 the past two seasons over a losing team with Penny on the mound.

Pedro is back but is this the time to back him, in his first start since April 1? The Mets bullpen is exhausted after Oliver Perez' one-inning disaster on Monday. Pedro is just 3-9 the past two seasons when the game total is under 9. Barry Zito boasts a terrible 1-8 record but he's been pitching very well of late. In his last five starts he has allowed no more than three runs. The Mets are 17-11 at home but just 11-17 on the road. They are 10-15 this season as a favorite of -125 to -175. The Giants are playing great right now winning five of their last seven, scoring 5.6 runs per game in the process. Not that we put a huge stake in it but it's interesting to note that home plate umpire Mike Dimuro has umped ten games thus far this season and nine of them have been won by the home team.

We like the value on San Francisco +1.5 runs as well. The past three seasons this team is 65-27 to the +1.5 run line at a price of -105 to -160 (today we are at -138). We think the Giants have a very good shot at winning this game but even if they don't, we like them to keep it within a run.

Results: 6-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Read our blog baseball here.
• View our updated Baseball spreads.
• View our updated MLB ATS records.
• View 2008 MLB prior picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our 2008 MLB baseball gambling preview.
• Updated today: MLB baseball sports handicapping philosophy.
• View free mlb predictions here.
• Don't forget to read our mlb betting here.
• Here we show our MLB Baseball Game Preview.
• View our MLB previous picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-02-2008
This is a Yankees lineup that has underachieved all season and already have played in 18 games where the offense has produced two runs or less. The road has not been the place for the offense to ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-June-01-2008
Milwaukee goes for the sweep of the Astros and we like their chances of getting it in what should be a high-scoring affair. David Bush is 1-5 with a 6.04 ERA. Milwaukee averages just 4.2 runs per game...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-30-2008
Chicago owns the best mark in the league at 33-21 and they have won four straight. We really like their chances today of getting #5 in a row. Yes, Aaron Cook goes for Colorado and he has been a l...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-29-2008
Atlanta has been two different teams. While dominating everyone at home, they have been dominated on the road where they are just 6-18 on the season. Jorge Campillo has come out of the bullpen to pitc...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-May-28-2008
The Rays continue to lead the AL East and now that we are almost a third of the way through the season, this feat is no longer labeled as a fluke. For the first time in their franchise history, the Ra...