Baseball Betting Free Pick - July 31, 2009

Last night, our 5-unit winner on the Sawx anchored one of our best nights ever as we finished 8-1 for +20.6 units! Last night's barnstormer lifted us to 58% at 117-84 for a whopping +82.5 units over the last seven weeks. On the season, we are clobbering the books to the tune of 249-216 for +51 units!

Today, we go with six picks including a 4-unit play.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	54-41 last 95 picks	57%	+$2400
MLB	117-84 last 201 picks	58%	+$8250
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$30430

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Arizona at New York Mets (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New York Mets -1.5 runs +180 (runline) (risk 2 to win 3.6)

The Mets have struggled with injury issues all season long, and have finally begun to get hot as they have now won five of their last six games. The D-Backs are just 5-10 in their last 15 on the road. It won't help that they have sent struggling Doug Davis to the mound, and his 9.49 ERA over his last three starts. The numbers get worse for Davis when he takes to the road, where the Diamondbacks have a miserable 5-18 mark in his last 23 road starts, and just 1-8 with a total set at 9-10.5. The Mets have been pretty decent at home, but where they have been at their best is playing a team at home that has a losing record on the season. The Mets have a huge advantage here, coming in at 29-10 in their last 39 in that situation. I'm going with the Mets on the runline here.

The Indians have had a disappointing season, but have played much better of late. They have struggled on the road all season, but are coming off their most successful road trip. They have gone 6-3, and will be feeling good playing at home with momentum. The Tigers really had it going, but have now stumbled as they are just 12-16 over their last 28 games, dropping three of their last four. Despite Edwin Jackson's 2.59 ERA, the Tigers have struggled in his 11 road starts where they have turned in just a 4-7 mark for the season. Overall, the Tigers are just 1-7 in their last eight on the road. The Indians were impressive on the road, and that has been good news as they are 16-5 returning home after a seven-game road trip or longer. I'll go with Cleveland in this one.

It's hard to even consider backing the Nationals on the road as a favorite, under any circumstances. They have their best pitcher in John Lannon on the hill, but it begins and ends there. The Nats, even with Lannon on the mound are still just 3-6 in his nine starts on the road. The Nats have been the worst road team against righthand pitching, perhaps of all time. They come into this one with an 11-51 mark in their last 62 games - not numbers that exude confidence with a favorite. Russ Olendorf has been steadily improving for the Pirates as they have now won five straight home starts with him as a home dog. It looks like a live dog here, so I'll go with the Pirates here.

This might look like a chalky number, but it is all about odds. The Rays have been better than this number at home against teams that are overall much better than the Royals. The Rays are 89-37 in all home games over their last 126, and 65-22 against a righthand starter. The Royals are fading fast, and Sydney Ponson is a hired gun to just try to eat some innings. The problem is the Royals are just 1-7 in his eight starts and on the season, his ERA is approaching seven. The Rays have too many bats for a starter that has not gotten it done all year, and a team that is finding life difficult on the road. The Royals have really taken a dive going 22-50 in their last 72 games, and I look for Tampa to pour it on here, so the Rays get the call.

There are lots of ingredients coming together here for a big Tampa Bay win. They are an amazing 89-37 at home in their last 126, as well as 65-22 against righthand starters. Sydney Ponson is flirting with a seven ERA, while the Royals are in the depths of a big swoon as they have gone just 22-50 over their last 72 games. Those Tampa numbers are very strong, and most have been agaisnt much stiffer competition. I'm going for a big Rays win here and will play them on the runline.

The Seattle Mariners will go with Jason Vargas in this one, who has been the weak link in their rotation. Vargas enters here with just a 6.92 ERA in his last three starts. The Mariners have won just two of his last seven starts, and they are just 2-5 in his last seven road starts. The Rangers have really poured it on as a big favorite as they have gone 44-15 against a moneyline of -151 to -200, while the Mariners have gone 23-51 when in the same range as a dog. They have also gone just 20-52 with a total set at 9-10.5 indicating they struggle without their top pitchers going. The Rangers also have the Mariner killer on the mound in Vicente Padilla, who has led the Rangers to seven straight wins against the Mariners. I'll go with the Rangers on the runline.

Results: 4-2

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

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MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2009
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-27-2009
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MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-26-2009
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