Baseball Handicapping - July 31, 2007
We're off another 3-0 sweep on Sunday, all of them underdogs. That day helped recover from a few bad ones last week. We look to come back strong with back-to-back winning days with three picks tonight.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Houston at Atlanta (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta -162 (risk 4 to win 2.5)
Chuck James has been hot as he has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in his last five starts and has been consistently good. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of those starts. Chris Sampson has taken an alternate route. He has pitched horribly since mid-June. Sampson has worked 36.2 innings since then and sports an ERA of 6.38. The Astros are a futile team on the road, and even worse when they face a good team. The Astros are just 2-17 in their last 19 road games vs. teams .500 or better, allowing nearly 7 runs per game, getting out-scored by nearly 3 runs per contest. Sampson and the Astros are 0-3 when he starts on the road vs a .500+ team. The Braves take the opener.
Game: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (8:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia +117 (risk 4 to win 4.7)
It is hard to ignore an underdog that is on a serious run. The Phillies have out-scored their opponents 72-30 over the last 10 games, making it is easy to see why they are 9-1. They have scored 4 or more runs in each of those games, while holding the opponent to 4 or less in seven of the ten. The Cubs have been a hot team for a long time, but they have shown signs of cooling off. They are now just 4-5 over their last nine games. Adam Eaton isn't exactly Sandy Koufax on the mound for the Phillies, but the Phil's have managed to win 8 of his last 14 starts, and right now they are a team out-hitting their pitching. The Phillies struggles vs. LHP are well documented, but they are ranked 4th in plus units to the moneyline vs. RHP. The Cubs are a money eating team at home, while the Phil's have netted plus units on the road. Jason Marquis has been worse than Eaton of late, as he has pitched to an 8.44 ERA over his last four starts, and has not gotten past the 5th inning in three of the four. There's always value in a good team that is red-hot as a dog, and we will ride this hot puppy.
Game: San Francisco at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Dodgers -166 (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Brad Penny has been absolute money this season. The guy is 13-1 with a perfect 6-0 record. His ERA is 2.51 and 2.23 at home! He's allowed just 4 HR and 38 ER in 136 innings pitched. San Fancisco is 20-31 for -7.0 units on the road this season. They are 21-34 vs. winning teams. They average only 4.3 runs per game, 4.1 in night games and 4.0 vs. division foes. The Dodgers pound left handed pitchers to the tune of 5.3 runs per game and an 18-11 mark. LA, with Penny on the mound is 17-4 this season and they are 19-4 the past two seasons with him starting when facing a losing opponnent. Finally, San Fran is 3-20 the past three seasons vs. teams wiht an OBP of .393+ (LA's is .341).
Results: 1-2
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-29-2007
Matt Garza has pitched extremely well since being recalled from AAA, and looks like the pitcher the Twins expected him to be last season. Garza was 11-3 last season in the minors, and this season was ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2007
The Jays staff has been very hot, leading to a 6-2 mark over their last eight games. They have allowed less than two runs a game over these eight games and tonight will bring Roy Halladay to the mound...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-27-2007
Are we crazy backing Minnesota here? They are on a down streak having lost seven of nine games. But, hang on - three of those losses came to Detroit in Detroit. All three were one-run losses. They the...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-26-2007
The Mets have awakened from mediocre play, and have now won 8-of-11, and are poised to sweep the Pirates. Oliver Perez has not allowed more than seven hits in any start since April, and his recent ERA...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-25-2007
The Orioles are not only a hot team right now having won 7 of 10, but they have a sizzling pitcher on the hill. Eric Bedard has virtually been unhittable of late. In his last three games Bedard h...
