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Three picks for Monday...

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Game: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Chicago White Sox -206 (risk 200 to win 97)

The Sox are struggling and know they need to win games like this to keep their hopes alive. History is on their side. Good teams (54% or better) that have won 2 of their last 3 games, playing a terrible team (38% or worse) are 188-74 (72%) over the last 5 seasons. Chicago goes with Jose Contreras (9-3, 3.52 ERA) here as KC starts Runelvys Hernandez (2-5, 6.80 ERA). In his last three starts, Hernandez has given up 12 earned runs in 4.3 innings. Ouch! In the second half of the season the last two seaons, Contreras is 18-4 vs. teams that score 4.7 or less runs per game. Despite their struggles in the win column, Chicago is still hitting very well scoring 6 runs per game over their lastr seven games. They put up 5.7 per game on the season on the road and should be able to hit Hernandez a lot more than KC will hit Contreras.

Aaron Cook is just 6-9 on the season. But, don't necessarily blame him for the losing record. He's got a 3.88 ERA and goes nearly 7 innnings per start. Against the Brewers, he's 4-1 with a 4.21 ERA. The fact remains that Colorado is a winning home team (26-25) while Milwaukee is bad on the road (18-32). Even money here represents a lot of value. Lefty Chris Capuano gets the start for Milwaukee and that's good news for Colorado as they pound lefties to the tune of 5.6 runs per game. Colorado has the bullpen advantage here as Milwaukee's boasts a 5.27 ERA and 5-12 record! Road teams allowing 5.3 or more runs/game after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 55-103 (35%) over the past decade.

Which of these teams is struggling more right now? Yes, the Nats were swept by the Dodgers and were outscored 24-9. But San Francisco got swept by the Piuttsburgh Pirates (inexcusable) and have dropped seven in a row. These two teams met just before those two series and Washington swept the Giants. You have to give the starting pitcher edge to the Giants here with Noah Lowry vs. Pedro Astacio. But Astacio has a lifetime winning record and 4.06 ERA vs. the Giants so don't count him out. And with the way the Giants are hitting right now (3.3 runs per game over their losing streak), he doesn't have a huge challenge in front of him tonight. SF is just 19-26 this season as a favorite of -100 to -150 and I like the road dog in this one.