Baseball Betting Free Pick - July 30, 2009

Last night we nailed our 5-unit pick with Baltimore on the runline on the way to another winning night. So what better way to celebrate then to roll out another 5-unit selection! We are 7-2 on our last nine 5-unit picks. Today, we feature nine premium plays.

Over the last seven weeks, our MLB picks are 109-83 for +61.9 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	54-39 last 93 picks	58%	+$3300
MLB	109-83 last 192 picks	57%	+$6190
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$29270

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Kansas City at Baltimore (12:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Baltimore -160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.9)

The Orioles have to feel good after beating Zack Grienke last night, scoring seven runs in the process. The Orioles have been a better-than-average team as long as they are playing at home where they are 27-23 on the season. That record extends to 10-5 when facing a team with a losing record. Hochevar has not been able to stop the bleeding for the falling Royals, as they have turned in a 3-12 mark when he starts, after they have allowed five or more runs in their previous game. The Royals are a poor team on the road, and playing the American League East have been just 50-107 in their last 157 games, and that mark against Baltimore stands at just 19-47 in the last 66 meetings. I'm going with the Orioles here.

After making a trade, the Reds  have a completely depleted outfield and will field a very thin lineup for this one against the Padres. The Reds have really taken a dive as they have now fallen 10 games under .500 for the first time this season, and stand just 4-14 in their last 18 games. Johny Cueto has really struggled for the Reds as he has an 8.65 ERA over his last eight starts. The Padres will go with Tim Stauffer, who has pitched solid, despite two defeats as he has turned in a 3.21 ERA. The Reds' offense is depleted with a struggling Cueto on the mound, opens the door to a live dog, so I'll go with San Diego here.

The San Diego Padres have handled the Reds thus far, and may have their best chance yet in this one. The Reds are short of players and Johny Cueto is pitching about as bad as he has in his brief career, carrying an 8.65 ERA into this one. The Reds are also mired in a deep slump as they have only cashed four of their last 18 games. I'm going with the Padres on the runline in this one.

The Red Sox should be angry for this one as they saw ace reliever Jonathon Papelbon surrender three runs in the ninth in game one, then Brad Penny allowed five in the first that did them in last night. Tonight should be a different story with Jon Lester on the mound. Lester, after a slow start, has been brilliant as he has allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts. During that time the Sox are 8-2, and he has pitched to a 2.00 ERA over the 10 games. The Red Sox are 112-30 as a home favorite of -201 or higher in their last 142 at Fenway. The A's are carrying a 3-13 mark in their last 16 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. I'm looking for a big Sox win today, and will back them on the runline.

Everyone has been waiting for the Cubs to go on a tear and it is in progress right now. The Cubs have now gone 10-3 over their last 13 games. They have gotten a big lift in the rotaion with Kevin Hart, who has gone 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA. The Houston Astros were playing well until the Mets cam in and took two of three, and they have now dropped two of three here in Chicago. Russ Ortiz has not been the answer for the Astros as he has pitched to an inflated 8.10 ERA over his last three starts. The Cubs have produced a 40-18 mark as a home favorite over their last 58, and in Ortiz' last five starts as a dog for the Astros, all of them resulted in losses. I'm going with the Cubs here.

The Chicago Cubs are playing their best baseball of the season cashing 10 of their last 13. They have also been a top team as a home favorite, recording a 40-18 mark in their last 58. The Astros' Russ Ortiz has really been struggling, pitching to a 8.10 ERA in his last three starts. When he has taken the mound with the Astros in an underdog role, they have dropped their last 5five. I like the Cubs here on the runline.

The Rockies are certainly a contender for the NL Wildcard while the Mets, with their myriad of injuries have faded and appear to be heading home. The Mets Jonathon Neise has allowed five runs or more in three of his last six starts and overall, he has been issuing four free passes a contest. The Rockies go with Jorge DeLaRosa who has pitched very well of late, turning in a 3-0 mark in his last three starts, backed by a 2.61 ERA. The Rockies have been one of the hottest teams in baseball with a 34-14 mark in their last 48, and DeLaRosa has pitched them to six-straight wins. The Mets have been having major problems with lefthand pitching as they are just 0-5 in their last five home games against them. I like the Rockies in this one.

These teams have more or less traded places this season. The Mets were supposed to be contenders, but injuries have taken their toll leaving them three games below .500 for the season. The Rockies have used a 34-14 surge to jump into the Wildcard Race. Jorge DeLaRosa has been a hot pitcher and has pitched the Rockies to six straight wins, while the Mets have been a dismal 0-5 in their last five at home against lefthanders. I like the Rockies here on the runline.

The St. Louis Cardinals have saved their best efforts against the best teams. The Cards enter this one with an 18-4 mark against teams with a winning percentage of .600+. They have also done well at home with Lohse on the mound, as they are 13-6 in his last 19 starts. The Dodgers have not fared well on the road with Kuroda on the mound against a team with a winning record as they are now 0-5. The Dodgers have also been cooled playing in St. Louis as they are just 8-27 over their last 35 games here. I'm going with St. Louis on the runline here.

Results: 8-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-29-2009
When Zack Greinke's name appears in the probable pitchers list, it is hard to ignore what he has done on the season. It also must be noted that he is just one element in many variables that enter ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2009
The Boston Red Sox don't lose too many games at home. When they are facing a team with a losing record on the season, those numbers jump off the page as they are 40-12, or have a winning percentag...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-27-2009
The Boston Red Sox will ride the strength of Josh Beckett to open a series vs the Oakland A's. Beckett after a dismal start, has been on top of his game meaning he yields very little, and is backe...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-26-2009
Toronto has lost 17 of their last 23 games and seven of eight vs. the Rays this season. But I like them to win here. Despite all that, and the big comeback win by Tampa Bay last night, the fact remain...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-25-2009
The Cards are making a push to not only make the playoffs, but to win it all and the addition of Matt Holliday is just another All-Star piece to add to the puzzle. The Cards have a stable bullpen, and...