MLB Baseball
Comp Edition
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July 30, 2006
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darrell,
Two picks today.
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Game: Tampa Bay at New York Yankees (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 stars on New York Yankees -300 (risk 300 to win 100)
Don't often take 3-to-1 favorites but as with the first game in this series, I like NY too much to lay off. We won that game 6-0 and now the Yankees are off a loss in which they gave up 19 runs. They face James Shields who has a 6.81 road ERA. Mussina goes for New York and he's 12-3 with a 3.44 ERA. He's also 14-5 with a 3.40 ERA lifetime against the D-Rays. New York is 17-3 after a very high scoring game (15+ total runs) this season. Yankees here.
Game: New York Mets at Atlanta (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Atlanta +103 (risk 200 to win 206)
The Braves need this one to avoid the series sweep to the Mets. NY goes with Tom Glavine who is 11-4 overall with a 3.69 ERA. But, in his last two starts he's dropped to 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA. In 14 starts against his former team, he's 3-9 with a 5.32 ERA. Chuck James goes for the Bravos and he's 4-1. Atlanta is 28-16 over the past decade as a home dog of +100 to +125 and they are 31-10 off a loss of 8+ runs over that same span. Home teams that score 5.0+ runs/game facing a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) are 41-17 (71%) over the last 5 seasons when coming off a big loss by 8+ runs. I expect the Braves to bounce back from last game's embarrassment here and get the needed win.
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