Baseball Betting Free Pick - July 29, 2009

We nailed our 5 unit play on the Tampa Bay runline +1.5 runs yesterday, making it our sixth winner out of eight in our 5 unit MLB picks and we have another 5 unit play today.  However, we missed the mark with our other MLB picks yesterday going 4-6 overall.  Over the past seven weeks our MLB picks are rolling strong at 108-82 for +61 units.  Today we have three premium picks for you.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	54-39 last 93 picks	58%	+$3300
MLB	108-82 last 190 picks	57%	+$6100
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$29180

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Kansas City at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Baltimore +1.5 runs -130 (runline) (risk 5 to win 3.9)

When Zack Greinke's name appears in the probable pitchers list, it is hard to ignore what he has done on the season. It also must be noted that he is just one element in many variables that enter into the selection process. Greinke, for as good as he has been, is pitching for a very bad team and even with Grienke on the hill they are still a bad team. The Royals are just 4-10 in Grienke's last 14 starts and it is because they are a soft hitting team, but a bigger reason is the bullpen is allowing 2.8 runs a game once he departs which makes his stellar 2.04 ERA on the season inflate to a nine inning rating of 4.84, or below average. The Birds have found a good spot for top prospect Chris Tillman to make his debut. Tillman carried a 2.70 ERA in AAA and is considered a top prospect. I'm going with the Orioles on the runline here.

The New York Mets have had a very disappointing and frustrating season. The injury list is lengthy and reads like a whose-who of fallen stars and the lineup has lost a lot of its potency. Johan Santana is a top of the rotation pitcher, but the Mets have turned in just a 4-6 record in his last ten starts and, because of a sputtering and depleted offense, two of those were by a single run, making the count 2-8 to a would be -1.5 runline. Jason Hammel for the Rockies was awful to start the season and the Rockies subsequently lost seven of his first eight starts. Hammel has done a much better job since and the Rockies, who are playing like a contender anyway, have been 9-3 in his last 12 starts. The three losses have been by a single run and the other two each by two runs. Certainly see a lot of value pointing to the runline here, and I will back the Rockies on the runline in this one.

The St. Louis Cards have ridden the arm of Joel Piniero to wins in each of his last four starts.  He has had terrific command and the results speak for themselves. Piniero has pitched to a 1.24 ERA in the four starts and over his last 52 innings has issued just two free passes. The Cards have really been on top of their game against the top teams as they have turned in an amazing 17-4 mark in their last 21 played vs teams with a winning percentgae of .600+. Clayton Kershaw has been good for the Dodgers, but unlike Piniero he has had a lot of command issues as he has walked 63 in his 112 innings of work and, as a result, is always pitching out of jams. The Dodgers have had a difficult time in St. Louis where they have been a miserable 8-26 here in their last 34 games. I'm going with the Cards on the runline in this one.

Results: 1-1

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-28-2009
The Boston Red Sox don't lose too many games at home. When they are facing a team with a losing record on the season, those numbers jump off the page as they are 40-12, or have a winning percentag...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-27-2009
The Boston Red Sox will ride the strength of Josh Beckett to open a series vs the Oakland A's. Beckett after a dismal start, has been on top of his game meaning he yields very little, and is backe...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-26-2009
Toronto has lost 17 of their last 23 games and seven of eight vs. the Rays this season. But I like them to win here. Despite all that, and the big comeback win by Tampa Bay last night, the fact remain...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-25-2009
The Cards are making a push to not only make the playoffs, but to win it all and the addition of Matt Holliday is just another All-Star piece to add to the puzzle. The Cards have a stable bullpen, and...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-24-2009
This one is the battle of the inept as San Diego travels to Washington. These teams have been out of any playoff hopes very early, so where is the value here? It is certainly hard to find any on the P...