Baseball Predictions - July 28, 2009

We hit with 7 of 10 plays last night, adding another +9 units to our MLB run! On the week, we are 28-14 for 67% and +36 units. Over the last six weeks, we are killing it to the tune of 104-76 (58%), for +69 units!

Today, we are back with another HUGE day with 10 picks in seven games including a 5-unit and a pair of 4-unit plays.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	53-37 last 90 picks	59%	+$3950
MLB	104-76 last 180 picks	58%	+$6900
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$30630

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Oakland at Boston (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boston -240 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.7)

The Boston Red Sox don't lose too many games at home. When they are facing a team with a losing record on the season, those numbers jump off the page as they are 40-12, or have a winning percentage of 77%, which would indicate a true moneyline expectation of almost -400. The A's rushed Vin Mazzaro to the big leagues, and he is a good pitcher, but definetly a work in progress. Mazzaro stands at just 2-7 on the season. He was impressive in his first two outings, allowing zero runs in 13+ innings, but since then he has struggled, with the A's dropping his last eight starts. I'm going with Boston in this one.

Looking at the Red Sox track record at home against teams with a losing record, it might be enough in itself to pull the trigger here. Those numbers stand at 40-12, or they have produced winners 77% of the time. Vin Mazzaro has struggled big time, and the A's have found the loss column in each of his last eight starts, being outscored 41-15, or by over three runs per game. I'm riding Boston on the runline here.

The Florida Marlins have to be feeling good about themselves right now as they completed a six-game road stand with a 5-1 record, which included winning two of three in LA, certainly not an easy task. Ricky Nolasco has added a lot of consistency to the Marlins' staff, as he has led them to a 6-2 mark in his last eight starts. Aside from a horrible showing at Arizona, Nolasco has been dominating hitters as he has allowed zero earned runs in three of his last six starts. The Braves will have Jair Jurrjens on the hill who has pitched very well on the season, but in his last five road outings, he has pitched to just a 4.97 ERA. I like the surging Marlins on the runline in this one.

Scott Kazmir has battled injuries and has not delivered his quality stuff most of the season, but he seems to rise with the challenge of facing the Yankees as he owns a 2.65 career ERA against them. CC Sabathia has had a good season for the Yankees, but far from a great one. His season-to-date ERA matches his career numbers, but his walks are up and his strikeouts are down. The Yankees are also just 11-10 in his 21 starts, so certainly nothing given here, and they are just 2-3 in his last five on the road. Sabathia has had trouble with consistency as the Yankees are just 1-4 in his last five starts following a quality start in his last outing. The Rays are 88-36 in their last 124 at home, so getting them as a dog is always a valued option, so I'll go with the Rays here.

You really have to take a look at what this Tampa Bay team has done on its home field. The Rays are an amazing 88-36 in their last 124 played here, so getting +1.5 runs is definately laden with value. When you factor in that that number improves to 42-13 when the total is set at 9-10.5 then you have the makings of even more value. I'm going with the Rays on the runline here.

The Chicago Cubs took a longtime to get things going this season, but are making their long anticipated run right now. The Cubs have now won five straight and nine of their last 11, playing their best baseball of the season. They haven't just been sneaking away wins as 12 of their last 13 wins have been by two runs or more. Houston has cooled off after a hot stretch of their own, and lost two straight to the Mets and the opener of this series by a combined score of 23-7. The pitching has been flat, and so has the offense. The Cubs are riding high at home with an 82-37 mark in their last 119 as a favorite, good enough to back strong runline odds here. I will go with the Cubs on the runline here.

The MLB season is a long one, and even the worst of teams like the Nationals will have their moments of sunshine during the course of the season. The Nats are in one of those spots right now where you have to throw out the body of work, and look at what they are doing now. The Nats produced back-to-back innings of six and seven runs last night as they finished with 14 runs. This team has now scored 10+ runs in two of their last three, as compared to just four other times all season. As the bats have heated up, the wins are coming. The Nats have now won three straight games and five of seven overall. The Brewers have not played good baseball in quite sometime as they are just 12-21 in their last 33 games. They are also just 9-25 in their last 34 games to a would be -1.5 runline. The Nats are hot, Brewers struggling, so I will go with the Nats on the runline here.

This line would look shady a year ago when Cole Hamels pitched the Phillies to a World Championship. He suffered an injury setback and has not resembled the same pitcher this season. Hamels has a 4.66 ERA on the season and has only made eight quality starts out of 19 outings. Dan Haren has been lights out, allowing two runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Diamondbacks have now won eight of his last nine starts, and are 13-4 in his last 17, and six of his last eight at home. The Phillies are just 1-4 in Hamel's last five starts as a dog, while the D-Backs are 19-7 in Haren's last 26 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. I'm going with Arizona here.

When you have a pitcher that has pitched as well as Dan Haren, you have to look at the extensive favorable odds on the runline. Haren has allowed two runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts, and in his last 13 wins on the mound for Arizona, he has pitched them to an 11-2 mark on a would be runline of -1.5. That certainly puts a favorable valued play when looking at a runline that is close to 2-1 odds to win. I'll back the Diamondbacks here on the runline.

The Toronto Blue Jays were in first place in the tough American League East for awhile, but went into a tailspin that saw them go 6-17 and dip below the .500 mark. They have now gotten it turned around winning their last two, and whipping up on Felix Hernandez who was untouchable over the past two months. They will get another hot pitcher in Jerrod Washburn tonight, but the Mariners are in a colossal struggle right now. The M's have dropped four straight, but that isn't all the story. They have been manhandled to the tune of 42-10 in the four games. For as good as he has been lately, Washburn is just 16-36 in his last 52 starts on grass. This looks like a live dog here and I'll play the Blue Jays in this one.

Results: 4-6

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to read our 2009 baseball pick season results here.
• View baseball picks blog here.
• Check out our updated mlb baseball betting approach.
• Updated today: MLB prior predictions.
• Check out our updated MLB Baseball Game-of-Day-Preview.
• Updated today: baseball sports book.
• Check out Baseball odds lines and spreads here.
• Read our free mlb predictions here.
• Updated today: mlb against-the-spread records.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-27-2009
The Boston Red Sox will ride the strength of Josh Beckett to open a series vs the Oakland A's. Beckett after a dismal start, has been on top of his game meaning he yields very little, and is backe...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-26-2009
Toronto has lost 17 of their last 23 games and seven of eight vs. the Rays this season. But I like them to win here. Despite all that, and the big comeback win by Tampa Bay last night, the fact remain...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-25-2009
The Cards are making a push to not only make the playoffs, but to win it all and the addition of Matt Holliday is just another All-Star piece to add to the puzzle. The Cards have a stable bullpen, and...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-24-2009
This one is the battle of the inept as San Diego travels to Washington. These teams have been out of any playoff hopes very early, so where is the value here? It is certainly hard to find any on the P...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-23-2009
This is becoming a recurring theme, but it is because the Giants have dictated a distinct pattern, both favorable and unfavorable. The Giants have been under the radar and have emerged as a viable pla...