Game: Los Angeles Angels at Boston (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Boston -135 (risk 200 to win 148)

Jon Lester goes for the Red Sox tonight brining in his undefeated record and 3.04 ERA. He's 5-0 overall and 3-0 at home with a 2.22 ERA. LA's Kelvim Escobar is 9-21 vs. winning teams over the past two seasons and he has a losing record vs. Boston. The Red Sox are scoring 6.6 runs per game over their last seven. LA is also scoring heavily but I'll take Boston at home with Lester on the mound in a shootout.

The Indians score 5.7 per game at home, 5.9 vs. right handers and have put up 6.3 per game over their last seven games. That's offense. Seattle gets 4.8 per game but manages just 3.9 per game vs. lefties. The Mariners are just 2-12 the last three seaons vs. teams at 46% or worse in the second half of the season and 9-24 over that span vs. losing teams overall. Home team in this one.

Last year Tampa Bay was a Yankee-killer. This season not so much as the Yankess have taken six of eight. At home here with Chien-Ming Wang on the mound, I like the Bronx Bombers a lot. He's 7-1 at home with a 3.24 ERA. In his last three starts he's given up just 7 runs in 21 innings. New York is hot having won 9 of 13 games and coming off a sweep of Texas. Wang has already beaten Tampa Bay this season. On July 8th he allowed one run in 8.33 innings of play. Road underdogs of +175 to +250 starting a pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season are 7-43 (14%) over the last 5 seasons. New York scores 5.6 per game while Tampa Bay gets just 4.1 per on the road. Yankees here.