Free Mlb Picks - July 27, 2009

We bowled the split last night, giving back a few. Today, we look to gain some serious ground with one of our biggest MLB days ever - ten plays from seven MLB games.

Over the last week, our MLB picks are +27 units as we are hitting 66% (21-11). And over the last six weeks, we are 97-73 for +60 units.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	53-37 last 90 picks	59%	+$3950
MLB	97-73 last 170 picks	57%	+$5990
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$29720

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Oakland at Boston (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boston -340 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 1.2)

The Boston Red Sox will ride the strength of Josh Beckett to open a series vs the Oakland A's. Beckett after a dismal start, has been on top of his game meaning he yields very little, and is backed by a bullpen that is one of the tops in baseball. What most don't realize is that Beckett has made 19 starts on the season, with 14 of the first 15 against teams with a winning record. How has he fared against teams with a losing record? The Sox are 3-0, so for the most part he has put up outstanding numbers pitching against the top teams in baseball all season, and even better when facing a losing team. The A's will go with Trevor Cahill, who the Sox solved earlier in the season, touching him up for four runs in five innings. This is a big number, but better odds that the Sox win here, so I'll lay the chalk and go with Boston.

The Royals were playing decent baseball for awhile, but now they are mentally and physically beat up. The Royals have had a rough go of late, resulting in just one win in their last 12 games. It is hard to win when your team does not have a big offense, and the pitching has allowed six runs or more in more than half the games during this current swoon. The Orioles have not been able to break through on the road, but have been a much better than average team at home, with a 26-21 mark on the season. The Royals will call on Bruce Chen, who simply hasn't been the answer as he has led the Royals to an 0-5 mark in his five starts. This does not look like the spot for the Royals to stop the bleeding, so I'll go with Baltimore here.

The Kansas City Royals are a bad team and they are playing at their worst right now. In contrast, the Orioles have been a tough team at home, entering with a 26-21 mark on the season. The Royals have dropped 11 of 12, and Bruce Chen has simply not been the answer as the Royals are 0-5 in his five starts on the season. The Royals' pitching has been horrible, and after allowing five runs in their last game, they return to go 5-21 in their next game, and are currently 0-8 in their last eight on the road against a left-hand starter. Too many negatives on the Royals here, so I'm going with Baltimore on the runline.

The Brewers send a struggling Jeff Suppan to the mound, as the Brewers have now lost five of his last six starts on the season and overall, they are just 3-5 in his eight home starts. The Nats will counter with Craig Stammen, who is pitching better than at any point of his MLB career. Stammen has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last five starts, and his command has been exceptional as he has issued just six free passes in his last seven starts. The Brewers are just 14-43 the past two seasons as a home favorite ont he run line with odds of +115 to +160. The Nats have a little something going here, having won two in a row and I like them in this matchup, Washington gets the call.

The Cards beefed up their lineup by acquiring Matt Holliday from the A's, and this will be a statement series for them against the Dodgers. They open with Chris Carpenter, who has been dominant when healthy. Carpenter has made 15 starts and has allowed three runs or less in 14 of them, surely meaning that the Cards are in every game he takes the mound. He has been a menace to opposing hitters at home, allowing zero runs in three of his five home starts, and just one run in another, and he stands a flawless 3-0 against the Dodgers over his career. Wolf has struggled against lineups that are hitting well, as the Dodgers are just 1-5 in his last six starts against a team that scored five runs or more in their last game. I'm going with the Cards in this one.

You have to seize the opportunity with a pitcher that has allowed nothing over his career at home as this season is no exception. Chris Carpenter has allowed xero runs in three of his five home starts, and just a single run in another. The Cardinals are now 43-14 in Carpenter's last 57 starts at home where he is lights out almost everytime he steps on the hill. I'm going with the Cards on the runline here.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have done nothing with lefthand pitching all season as they have a record of just 9-18, but more importantly, they score just 3.7 runs a game against them. That would put pressure on the Phillies to score seven , which they have done in just one of their last 11 road games. The Phillies have also been 23-11-1 to the UNDER after a win, and the Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Garland's last five starts as a dog. Totals in the NL at the 10+ mark with just one offensive team in the mix lends a lot of value on the short side, so I'll play this one to go UNDER the total.

Cleveland has been an offensive team and has held their own at home, but the offensive numbers tail off and on the road it has led to a 19-28-1 mark to the UNDER. While Carl Pavano hasn't regained his form he had for the Marlins, he has been tough pitching to higher-range totals as the Indians are 7-1 to the UNDER in his last eight starts with a total of 9-10.5, and overall he has a 6-2-1 mark to the UNDER vs. the AL West. Saunders has been good at stopping teams that scored 5+ in their last game as he has turned in a 10-2-1 mark in his last 13 starts in that situation. These teams have had a tendency to play lower-scoring games with five of the last six going under, and nine of the last 13 in LA as well. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.

If your going to go against a pitcher the quality of Felix Hernandez, you better have a pitcher that can keep your team in the game, and Ricky Romero has been that pitcher for the Blue Jays. He has worked them to a 7-1 mark when he is on four day's rest, and led them to wins in his last four outings as an underdog. The Mariners are not a big offensive team, and rely on pitching to win. They have played in more one-run games than any other AL team with 36. The 23 one-run wins means that this 51-47 team is just 28-70 to a would be -1.5 runline. That puts added value on the Jays here, who I will back on the runline.

The Seattle Mariners took a blow when Eric Bedard went on the DL with continued shoulder problems. Yopu have to wonder of wonder if it effects the team chemistry and psyche here. It puts added pressure on Felix Hernandez, who has been magnificent of late. The Blue Jays will counter with a rising star of their own in Ricky Romero. The Mariners have won six of his last eight starts including three of his last four on the road, and he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts. The Jays are also 7-1 when Ronmero is on four days rest, and 4-0 in his last four outings as a dog. The Mariners are now 0-5 in their last five at home against a team with a losing record, so I'm going with the Jays here.

Results: 7-3

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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-26-2009
Toronto has lost 17 of their last 23 games and seven of eight vs. the Rays this season. But I like them to win here. Despite all that, and the big comeback win by Tampa Bay last night, the fact remain...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-25-2009
The Cards are making a push to not only make the playoffs, but to win it all and the addition of Matt Holliday is just another All-Star piece to add to the puzzle. The Cards have a stable bullpen, and...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-24-2009
This one is the battle of the inept as San Diego travels to Washington. These teams have been out of any playoff hopes very early, so where is the value here? It is certainly hard to find any on the P...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-23-2009
This is becoming a recurring theme, but it is because the Giants have dictated a distinct pattern, both favorable and unfavorable. The Giants have been under the radar and have emerged as a viable pla...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-22-2009
July has seen the highest percentage of favorites win in any month in any year dating back to 2004. The Minnesota Twins aren't a likely source to offer resistance to that trend as they enter here ...