Major League Baseball Pick - July 26, 2009

Jimmy Rollins did us in yesterday with his grand slam as we finished 2-2 around the bases. Oh well, we have to put it in the rearview and move on with another 5-unit play today! We are 18-8 (69%) for +30 units on the week and today we have a total of six palys with a fiver as well as a 4-unit pick.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	53-35 last 88 picks	60%	+$4750
MLB	94-70 last 164 picks	57%	+$6320
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$30850

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Toronto +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.4)

Toronto has lost 17 of their last 23 games and seven of eight vs. the Rays this season. But I like them to win here. Despite all that, and the big comeback win by Tampa Bay last night, the fact remains that the Rays are a losing road team while Toronto is a winning home team. This applies to both moneyline and run line. When playing their third straight road game this season, the Rays are 16-28. After three or more road games this season, they are 9-20 vs. the run line. When instilled as a small road favorite (-100 to -125), they are just 7-18 this season! In July thus far, Tampa Bay is 2-11 on the road vs. the run line. I like Toronto at the +1.5 odds on the run line here.

The Yankees finally lost after eight straight post-All Star wins and I look for them to bounce back here vs. the Athletics. The A's are 19-30 on the season on the road, averaging just 3.9 runs per game. That won't get it done in New York where the Yankees are 34-17. New York averages 5.7 runs per game vs. LHP and they get one in Braden here. Oakland is just 18-37 this season vs. winning teams and as such, they have very little chance here.

The A's will have a tough time scoring runs in this game while New York likely won't. Oakland's league's worst offense just got worse with the trade of Matt Holliday. As a result, we have a very good chance of a 2+ run win by New York. The Yankees own a huge offensive advantage as well as a big bullpen advantage. New York averages 5.5 runs per game at home while Oakland averages just 3.9 per game on the road. Add in the fact that New York is motivated to avenge their first post-All Star loss and I think the Yankees win easily here.

Prior to last game Boston had lost five straight. But, this team still is 57-39 on the season and those five losses were all on the road. The Sox have won five straight at Fenway to push their record here to 33-14. The Orioles are just 15-34 on the road this season and they have lost seven of their last eight games. The Red Sox are 6-0 this season thus far vs. Baltimore and although he hasn't looked like the Smoltz of old, this is still John Smoltz. If he does struggle, a great bullpen will take over. And, he's likely to get lots of run support as usual. In second-half of season play the past two years, Baltimore is 17-44 vs. winning teams. Over the past three seasons, in late-season play the Red Sox are 35-8 vs. teams at .460 or worse. This season, they are 18-3 vs. AL teams that allow 5.2+ runs per game.

The Orioles average 4.1 runs per game ont he season on the road while Boston knocks in 5.6 per game at home. On the road, the Baltimore bullpen owns an ERA of 5.28 while Boston's is 3.18 at home. I like Boston's chances a lot today for a big win. And, at + odds, that spells a ton of value. After 4+ straight road games this season, Baltimore is 9-18 vs. the run line. When getting odds of -135 to +165 on the run line (as they are here), the O's are 5-18 this season vs. the run line. When the total is set to 10+ this season, Boston is 16-9 vs. the run line. They are also 14-7 at home vs. division opponents this season. I like Boston a lot to get the big win here.

The Angels offense is so good that it can still blow teams out despite the absence of Vlad, Hunter and Rivera. Over the past eight games, LA is putting up a ridiculous 7.8 runs per game. Meanwhile the Twins have been outscored 39-14 during their 10-game road trip which ends here tonight. They just want to get out of this game and get home. In day-games on the road over the past couple of seasons, the Twins are just 18-29 on the run line. Meanwhile the Angels have been taking advantage of home-cookin' this season, going 23-16 vs. the run line after back-to-back home games. They have also won 14 of their last 21 vs. the run line this year and they are 26-15 vs. the run line overall this season vs. losing teams. We'll take the +150 odds here on a game that LA has at least a 50% shot at winning by 2+ runs.

Results: 3-3

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Here we show our 2009 MLB season prior picks.
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• Take a look at our MLB Baseball lines here.
• View our updated free mlb picks.
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Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-25-2009
The Cards are making a push to not only make the playoffs, but to win it all and the addition of Matt Holliday is just another All-Star piece to add to the puzzle. The Cards have a stable bullpen, and...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-24-2009
This one is the battle of the inept as San Diego travels to Washington. These teams have been out of any playoff hopes very early, so where is the value here? It is certainly hard to find any on the P...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-23-2009
This is becoming a recurring theme, but it is because the Giants have dictated a distinct pattern, both favorable and unfavorable. The Giants have been under the radar and have emerged as a viable pla...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-22-2009
July has seen the highest percentage of favorites win in any month in any year dating back to 2004. The Minnesota Twins aren't a likely source to offer resistance to that trend as they enter here ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-21-2009
The Phillies have gotten to the point where they have to almost be considered an automatic play-on right now. They have now won 13 of their last 14, which includes nine straight wins. The Phillies hav...