darrell,

Got the +1.7 unit profit yesterday as our 3-star play and underdog Florida came through to deliver the winnings. Four picks today.

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Good luck today...

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay (12:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Tampa Bay +142 (risk 200 to win 284)

Something just insn't right with LA right now. No way they should have lost last night but they did. In the past week and a half they have now lost on four times including three to Kansas City and Tampa Bay. This afternoon they are big road favorites against a good starting pitcher in Casey Fossum. Fossum has a 3.33 home ERA and 2-1 record and he's 8-1 the last two seasons at home during the second half of the season. Bartolo Colon has a very good ERA on the road (3.03) but he's just 1-2 and 1-5 overall. Tampa Bay is a winning home team and they've found offense of late (6.4 runs per game over their last seven games). Road teams hitting under .265 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 7 or more hits per start vs. a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00+) are just 20-44 (31%) over the last 5 seasons. Tampa Bay as big home dog in this one.

The Pirates stole one on the road last night and today I don't think they can do it again against Chris Capuano who is 7-1 at home with a 2.60 ERA. Paul Maholm goes for the Pirates and he's the exact opposite on the road: 1-7 with a 6.10 ERA. Milwaukee has taken four of five already this year in this series and Pittsburgh is 12-40 overall on the road where they score under 4 runs per game. Milwaukee to take the game and the series.

Cincinnati has owned the Rockets thus far this season but I like the home team here with Andy Pettitte on the mound. Pettitte has a winning record at home and has pitched well over his last three starts. Bronson Arroyo has great overall numbers but mediocre on the road (3.61 ERA and 5-5 record). Cincinnati's offense has slowed (4.1 runs per game over their last seven). Houston is a solid home team that is making it hard for opposing teams to score right now. With Pettite on the mound, I expect Cincinnati's offense to struggle and Houston to get the win.

KC came through for us last night and I again like them here at home. Baltimore is now 18-31 on the road scoring 4.3 per game. They face another left handed pitcher against whom they score just 4.1 per game. The O's are 11-25 vs. lefties and 5-17 on the road at -125 to +125 this year. KC scores runs at home putting up 5.5 per game and they are now 7-0 over the past two seasons at home vs. bad teams (46% or worse) in the second half of the season. Home teams at +125 to -125 starting a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.800 or worse on the season after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs are 37-14 (73%) over the past decade.