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2-1 last night. Four picks tonight.

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Game: Florida at Atlanta (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Florida +124 (risk 200 to win 248)

Anibal Sanchez is yet another surprise rookie this year coming out of the gate on fire. He's 3-0 in four starts having posted a ridiculous 1.46 ERA in those starts. While Atlanta seems to have Florida's number, I think this is the game the Marlins win. Florida has won three straight and six of their last eight. In a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49%), a team off 3+ consecutive wins are 74-38 (66%) since 1997. The Braves are just 8-14 as a home favorite of -100 to -150 this seaon. They are under .500 at home where they score fewer runs than they do on the road. Florida here.

Again tonight we get to fade the worst road team in the majors (11-40). Pittsburgh starts Ian Snell who has actually found a way to win on the road. And, Milwaukee starts a struggling pitcher in Ben Sheets. But, Sheets is too good to pitch this poorly and no one better to get healthy against than the Pirates who scor under 4 runs per game on the road. Road underdogs of up to +150 after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a terrible team (38% or worse) are just 41-95 (30%) vs. losing teams over the past five years. And, Home teams allowing 5.3 or more runs per game after a combined score of 17 runs or more are 45-17 (73%) over the last 5 seasons. Fade the road Pirates.

Great opportunity to back KC at home here. I look at KC at home as they are a bit underrated here. While horrible on the road, at home they are just under .500 and they score 5.4 runs per game (vs. about 4 per game away from home). And, we get a bad road team in this one. Baltimore is 18-30 on the road where they score 4.3 per game. They are 5-16 on the road at +125 to -125. And, they struggle against left handed pitchers (10-24 on the season scoring 4.1 per game). KC starts a good lefty here in Mark Redman. On such a bad team, it's significant that he's got a winning record (6-5 overall and 4-2 at home). Facing him is Kris Benson who is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA in July. So we have a decent home team that scores 5.4 runs per game with a solid winning starting pitcher vs. a bad road team that scors 4.3 per game on the road and 4.1 vs. lefties with a struggling starter. Take the home dog here.

Two aces square off here when Roy Halladay takes on Gil Meche. Halladay is the reason we see Toronto favored on the road. He's 12-2 on the season with a 3.08 ERA and has actually been a bit better on the road than at home. But, his Blue Jays will be facing another very good pitcher in Gil Meche. Meche is 9-4 overall with a 3.68 ERA. But, at home, he's been at least as good as Halladay. At home Meche is 6-2 with a 2.51 ERA. And, he's 5-0 in his last nine starts overall posting a 2.65 ERA. The opportunity to get a home team with that good a starter as an underdog is rare. Seattle has the bullpen advantage when it gets late. Seattle is hot right now as they've won three straight and four of five including three wins against the Yankees and Red Sox! Toronto is an excellent team but they are much better at home than on the road. Take the hot home team here with a great pitcher as a dog.