Sports Pick Mlb - July 24, 2009

Last night we finished 1-2, giving back a couple of units. We are 13-4 over the last four days, good for +28 units (76%), and over the last six weeks, our MLB picks are rolling at 89-66 for +60.5 units. Today, we feature five premium picks including a 4-unit play.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	53-35 last 88 picks	60%	+$4750
MLB	89-66 last 155 picks	57%	+$6050
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$30580

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: San Diego at Washington (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Washington -120 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.7)

This one is the battle of the inept as San Diego travels to Washington. These teams have been out of any playoff hopes very early, so where is the value here? It is certainly hard to find any on the Padres who have converted just 13 of 46 road contests, or 28.3% of the time. It's tough to play on that kind of road futility, especially at close to even money. The Padres are also just 16-46 as a road dog in their last 62, cashing at even a lower rate. Then when it comes to playing the NL East, they have taken the doughnut at 0-8. While the numbers certainly aren't outstanding for the Nats on the season, they have been winning the games they are suppose to win, and have cashed four of their last five as a home favorite, so I'll go with the Nats in this one.

Bartolo Colon has alwats been a sought after pitcher, and has been a lure for many teams with the latest being the Chicago White Sox. Sometimes that lure isn't as attractive as it looks. Colon will never again resemble the pitcher that won 135 games in eight years from '98-'05. He is now on his third team in three years, and the wins have been hard to come by. Since '05, Colon is just 14-21, despite pitching for all winning teams. This year is no expception as the White Sox are just 3-8 in his 11 starts. The White Sox are just 14-37 in their last 51 against a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or higher, while the Tigers have been a flawless 7-0 at home against teams with a winning record in their last seven matchups. I'll go with Detroit in this one. PLEASE NOTE THIS IS GAME TWO OF THE DOUBLEHEADER

Sometimes when a pitcher starts a season off the charts, that reputation sticks in the minds of all. As a result, the oddsmakers are forced to jack-up the price because of the interest level and perception. Zack Grienke is one such pitcher for the Royals. He had a microscopic ERA over his first 10 starts and led the Royals to an 8-2 mark. He has still pitched well, but for a bad team that has trouble scoring. The results show the Royals at just 2-7 in his last nine starts. The Rangers will go with Scott Feldman, who has had a good season of his own, while pitching for a much better team. He has also had success on the road where he has led the Rangers to a 6-1 mark in his last seven road starts. The Royals are really in a freefall right now, as they have dropped nine straight games. I'm going with the Rangers in this one.

It is hard to imagine a Royals' team that has dropped nine straight games to be offering a run and a half vs. a solid Rangers club, regardless as to who is taking the mound. This team has not only dropped nine straight, but they would be 4-27 in their last 31 games if they had to lay -1.5 runs, so the value is pretty evident. Many will worry about Greinke, but no matter how well he has pitched, over his last nine starts the Royals are no better than the last nine losses they have suffered. The Royals would be 0-9 in Greinke's last nine starts if offered at -1.5. I'm backing the Rangers on the runline here.

The Giants have certainly opened some eyes this season. They have placed themselves in contention on the power of a 31-15 home mark. But when they take to the road, they don't come anywhere near resembling the team they have been at home as they slip to 20-29. That represents a team that is 27% less capable on the road, and highly vulnerable. The Rockies have quietly been the hottest team in baseball over the last seven weeks as they are now 32-11 in their last 43 games, and their early season staus as a pretender, has now become one of contender. The Rockies have been 23-20 in those last 43 games to a would be -1.5 runline. To truly understand the value here, they were underdogs in 16 of them! I'm going with the Rockies on the runline here.

Results: 3-2

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Updated today: 2009 MLB prior picks results.
• View blog baseball picks here.
• Hop over to our Baseball sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Here we show our MLB prior predictions.
• Read our Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis here.
• View our baseball sportsbook reviews here.
• Here we show our MLB odds and lines.
• Hop over to our mlb handicapping here.
• Hop over to our MLB ATS records here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-23-2009
This is becoming a recurring theme, but it is because the Giants have dictated a distinct pattern, both favorable and unfavorable. The Giants have been under the radar and have emerged as a viable pla...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-22-2009
July has seen the highest percentage of favorites win in any month in any year dating back to 2004. The Minnesota Twins aren't a likely source to offer resistance to that trend as they enter here ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-21-2009
The Phillies have gotten to the point where they have to almost be considered an automatic play-on right now. They have now won 13 of their last 14, which includes nine straight wins. The Phillies hav...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-20-2009
Both the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals have sure struggled over the last month or so, and the Mets have been reduced to a poor team because of multiple injuries to key players. The result...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-19-2009
The Mariners don't score a lot but their pitching and defense have been tremendous. They allow just 4.1 runs per game overall, 3.9 per game in day games and they have given up just 2.6 per game ov...