Free Mlb Picks - July 23, 2008

Yesterday we grabbed +4.1 units as we hit with our lone pick on Florida. Today we are back with three plays including a 4-unit afternoon game pick.

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Los Angeles at Colorado (3:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Colorado -102 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.9)

The Rockies’ offense is sizzling, especially at home and the wins keep piling up with it. The Rockies have now gone 10-2 in their last 12 at home and have scored 10+ in their last three games. The Rox have scored 101 runs in the 12 games or 8.4 runs per game. That certainly covers up a lot of pitching woes. The Dodgers got 16 here Monday, but just one last night. Last night’s performance has been the tale of the Dodgers’ season, inconsistent with lack of offense. They have now scored three or less in 49 games on the season and an amazing 29 games scoring one run or less. It is hard to put your money and that kind of firepower, against a team scoring at the rate the Rockies are. We will take Colorado in this one.

Here we are again with the Braves. This team has gone just 16-33 on the road, winning less than once every three times out and they are the favorite? We certainly don't see any value in that. The fact is that the Braves have been a favorite on the road 28 times and have produced a 9-19 mark as a road favorite. It is pretty odd to see a team winning on the road less than once every three games a favorite 28 times. It must be the Tim Hudson factor right? WRONG! The Braves are 3-9 in Hudson’s 12 road starts, which is actually a lower winning percentage than they have in all other road games combined. Ricky Nolasco has matched Hudson win-for-win with 10, and the Marlins have won 11 of his last 14 starts. There is lots of value on the Marlins here and we will ride them as a home dog.

The Nats have been just 14-30 over their last 44 games and have never experienced success on the road. Collin Balester makes his fourth big-league start, and has taken his lumps in the last two, allowing nine runs in 10.1 innings of work. He hasn't been able to get deep in games, and that exposes the Nats’ serious weakness - the middle-inning bullpen relievers who have coughed up an additional eight runs in his three previous starts. So does it pay to be on the home team with a pitcher on the mound that has a WHIP of 1.55-1.65, and one that got rocked for 7+ runs in his last outing? The answer is a resounding yes. Teams in the Giants’ situation have been 52-26 to the -1.5 runline last 78 games for +35.5 units. The value is on San Fran against the runline.

Results: 2-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

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• Updated today: Baseball Game-of-Day Analysis.
• View MLB prior picks here.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-22-2008
Not sure if this Atlanta team with a road record of 16-32 has the credentials to ever be favored on the road. So far the oddsmakers haven't agreed with us, but the results have. Atlanta has been f...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-21-2008
What a difference a year makes, as this San Diego team just keeps putting a bigger number in the loss column. After riding high on a season's best 13-6 run, the Padres have fallen back to what we ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-20-2008
Justin Duchscherer has put together an amazing run for the A's. He has not pitched a bad game all season, and has pitched 10 consecutive quality starts not allowing more than two runs in any of th...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-19-2008
Randy Wolf has not been pitching well of late, and the Padres have not played well all season as they continue to struggle putting runs on the scoreboard. The Padres made a 13-6 run, but have fallen b...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2008
Hot teams like the Mets find ways to win. Last night the Mets plated four runs in the ninth to grab their 10th straight win, so getting a team on fire at virtually even odds always shows value. After ...