Major League Baseball Pick - July 23, 2007
We went 2-1 yesterday to notch our seventh winning day out of the last ten. We've hit 63% (19-11) for +19 units over the past week and a half. We're at 58% for +63.4 units since the start of the season.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Minnesota at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -138 (risk 3 to win 2.2)
Minnesota ran into a buzz saw in Detroit in their series before the Angels. But, they took two of three from LA and swept Oakland prior to facing the Tigers. Overall, they have gone 22-16 over the past month and 8-5 over the past two weeks. Toronto has lost 12 of their last 21. They aren't looking forward to facing the AL's best starter tonight. Johan Santan is 7-2 on the road with 1.85 ERA! He's only suffered one loss overall since June 10th. He's 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA in his last seven starts. Facing him is Shaun Marcum who's had a good year but has been blasted of late. He's got an 8.22 ERA over his last three starts, averaging just 5.1 innings per go. The Twins are a .500 ballclub on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per game (over half a run more than they get at home). Toronto scores just 4.5 per game at home and they've averaged only 3.0 per game over their last seven. Back to the reason for this pick: Santana. Over the past two seasons, the Twins are a perfect 18-0 with him starting vs. an AL opponent scoring lest than 4.7 runs per game! Take him and the Twinkies at this low price.
Game: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Detroit +101 (risk 4 to win 4)
Wow. This is a classic overreaction to starting pitching! Detroit has won five of seven, eleven of fifteen and 20 of 28. Chicago has lost three straight and seven of eleven. Yes, Mark Buehrle is very good. But good enough to justify Detroit being an underdog here? Consider that Detroit is 32-17 on the road, scoring 6.5 runs per game. They are 21-7, averaging 6.5 per game, vs. LHP. The White Sox are a losing home team (19-25), averaging 4.2 per game. They are 10-19 vs. lefties, scoring 4.0 per game. Detroit has a much better bullpen too (3.82 road ERA vs. Chicago's 6.54 home ERA). And, Chicago's starter has numbers that rival Buehrle's! He's got a 2.45 road ERA vs. Buehrle's 3.00 home ERA. Buehrle, despite a good ERA is just 3-3 at home. Detroit is 40-16 vs. bad teams (under 46%) the past two seasons. They are also 12-4 this season on the road following a loss.
Game: Oakland at Los Angeles Angels (10:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 4 units on Los Angeles Angels -125 (risk 4 to win 3.2)
Neither of these two teams has been very good of late. Oakland has lost eleven of thirteen. LA has dropped five of seven. But, they have averaged 3.7 runs per game over that span while Oakland has managed just 2.8 per game over their bad run. The A's bring in the better starting pitcher. Or do they? Yes, Gaudin has better numbers than Colon but Colon has the potential to pitch very well, especially against this kind of offense. He started the year 5-0 but has since tanked. But he has a 6-3 record and 3.38 ERA vs. the Athletics. Gaudin has also slowed after a quick start. Since the end of May, he's just 3-4 with a 4.73 ERA. Oakland scores only 3.8 runs per game vs. right handed starters and 3.3 vs. division foes. LA scores 5.5 per game at home and 4.9 vs. righties. LA is too solid of a defensive team, and Oakland too poor an offensive team for this line. Great value on the home team here.
Results: 1-2
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-21-2007
No one is hotter than the Cubs right now. Lou Pinella went into one of his tirades, got ejected and the Cubs have responded by going a major league best 19-5. The pitching has been outstanding allowin...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-20-2007
The Cubs continue to do it for us. They won for us again yesterday and we'll back them today as well. They've won six of their past seven and 18 of 23. Arizona has lost four of five and 12 of ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-19-2007
Detroit has won nine of eleven games and sends the red-hot Jeremy Bonderman to the mound for the sweep of Minnesota. Bonderman is 10-1 this season and a perfect 5-0 on the road. He's got a 3.50 ER...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2007
What can you say about Aaron Harang? He pitches on a bad team, yet when he toes the rubber, the Reds are 15-5! They are 24-50 in all other games. The Reds have won 10 of his last 12 road starts and no...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2007
Arizona is ice cold right now having lost seven of their last nine. Milwaukee has won three in a row. Both pitchers are suspect. Yusmeiro Petit has only thrown 17 innings. Claudio Vargas has been pret...
