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Four picks this afternoon...

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Game: Pittsburgh at Florida (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Florida -201 (risk 200 to win 100)

Dontrelle Willis hasn't been great this season but he's been good. Tom Gorzelanny has been awful (9.25 ERA). And, he plays for the worst road team inthe leage (11-38 record). The Pirates are also just 6-26 this season vs. lefties and 1-13 on the road after a lsos by 4+ runs. Pittsburgh scores 3.8 per game on the road and they'll be pushing it to get to that today vs. Willis and the very solid Florida bullpen.

We took Cincinnati yesterday as a home dog, pointing out that Milwaukee has no business being a road favorite. Well, today, the oddsmakers got the line better but I still like Cincinnati here. Again, the starting pitching matchup is overly influencing the line. Tomo Ohka has been good in his starts while Eric Milton has been below average. But, Cincinnati is a winner and Milwaukee, especially on the road, is not. The Brewers have lost nine of eleven and they are playing their ninth straight on the road. As mentioned yesterday, they get run down. They are now 4-18 after 5+ consecutive road games this season. Back to Ohka - he's 5-18 in July games. Cincinnati gets 5.2 per game at home while Milwaukee manages just 4.8 per game on the road. Reds here.

Scott Kazmir as a small home favorite? Yea baby. This guy is 5-2 at home with a 2.04 ERA! He goes 7.2 innings per start. Erik Bedard is 4-5 on the road with a 5.77 ERA and he got tagged by the D-Rays earlier this season giving up 5 runs in 3 innings on June 1. Baltimore has lost four straight and they are 17-30 on the road this year. They are also 9-24 vs. left handed starters! Tampa Bay is a winning home team and they are scoring runs of late (6.0 per game over their last seven). Home favorites off an 8+ run performance facing an opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more 2 straight games are 52-17 (75%) over the last 5 seasons. And, road underdogs revenging 2 straight losses where their opponent scored 8 or more runs, with a hot starting pitcher (ERA less than 2.50 over his last 3 starts) are only 6-32 (16%) over the past decade. Tampa here.

Texas has won four of five while Chicago has lost four straight. The Rangers go for the road sweep here and put a hot pitcher on the mound. Vicente Padilla is 34-0 in his last three starts with a 23.61 ERA. He's 10-5 overall on the season and the Rangers are 11-2 this season with him on the mound at +125 to -125. Jon Garland has also been hot but he's just 2-13 vs. teams with winning records in the second half of the season. He's also jujst 3-6 vs. the Rangers. Texas for the sweep.