Mlb Game Predictions - July 22, 2009

We had a perfect day on the MLB diamond yesterday, going 4-0.  That puts our two day total for the MLB at 10-1 for 98% and +28.5 units.  Today we have three premium MLB plays for you, including two afternoon games.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	47-34 last 81 picks	58%	+$3100
MLB	86-63 last 149 picks	58%	+$6130
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$29010

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Minnesota at Oakland (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Oakland -1.5 runs +180 (runline) (risk 2 to win 3.6)

July has seen the highest percentage of favorites win in any month in any year dating back to 2004. The Minnesota Twins aren't a likely source to offer resistance to that trend as they enter here with a 55-73 road record in their last 128 despite being 81-48 over the same period at home. Glen Perkins got out of the gate with three strong performances, allowing four runs and worked eight innings in each of his first three starts pitching to a 1.50 ERA. He hasn't found the magic since as he has not gone eight innings in any outing since and has posted a 6.07 ERA since. Trevor Cahill is a young pitcher and when things go bad as they have in four of his starts, he falls apart, but when they don't which has been 15 of his 19 starts, he has been tough as he has posted a 2.91 ERA in those 15 starts, certainly a pitcher in control more often than not. I'm going with the A's on the runline.

The Padres look to avoid the home sweep here. They have lost three in a row and 15 of their last 18 games. But let's not forget Florida has been struggling of late too, having dropped five of eight and 11 of their last 21. When we look at run line stats, the story gets better for the Pads and worse for the Marlins. San Diego is 9-6 in their last 15 on the run line while Florida has lost six of their last eight vs. the run line. Asking Florida to win by 2+ on the road here with a Ricky Nolasco on the mound is asking a lot. Nolasco has been posting a 2-4 mark with a 6.99 ERA on the road this seasson. Florida is averaging 2.9 runs per game over their last seven and batting just .248 on the road all season. The Padres don't get blown out often when they are in the midst of an extended home stand as they are here (this is their seventh straight at home). The Pads are 15-2 this season vs. the run line after having played 5+ straight at home including 10-1 after 6+ straight at home. I like San Diego plus the 1.5 this afternoon.

Tim Lincecum has had a Cy Young season so far entering here 10-2 with a 2.27 ERA, but as good as that sounds he has been even better of late at 1.74 in his last three outings. Lincecum, unlike most pitchers, has pitched even better on the road where he brings a 2.13 ERA and a 5-1 road record into this one. Those numbers sound great, but they don't out-distance Jair Jurrgens by much as Jurrgens has posted a 2.77 ERA on the season himself. These pitchers combined average a 2.77 ERA against the respective teams they will face tonight, so they have high caliber numbers vs the lineups they will face here. These teams have also combined for a 28-12 mark to the under when the total is set from 7-8.5, and I will go with the UNDER in this one.

Results: 2-1

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Updated today: 2009 baseball pick results.
• Check out our updated mlb blog.
• View MLB sports handicapping philosophy here.
• Here we show our baseball prior predictions.
• Read our Baseball Game Analysis here.
• View sports betting mlb here.
• Don't forget to read our Baseball lines and odds here.
• View our free baseball pick here.
• View our updated MLB ATS records.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-21-2009
The Phillies have gotten to the point where they have to almost be considered an automatic play-on right now. They have now won 13 of their last 14, which includes nine straight wins. The Phillies hav...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-20-2009
Both the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals have sure struggled over the last month or so, and the Mets have been reduced to a poor team because of multiple injuries to key players. The result...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-19-2009
The Mariners don't score a lot but their pitching and defense have been tremendous. They allow just 4.1 runs per game overall, 3.9 per game in day games and they have given up just 2.6 per game ov...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2009
The past has led many to see Johan Santana post at almost even money and become a no-brainer pick. That has changed with this Mets team that has been riddled with injuries, the latest Gary Sheffield, ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2009
The Seattle Mariners certainly have a good one in Felix Hernandez. He has been in control over his last nine starts, but as good as he has been, Cleveland has reduced him from All-Star to ordinary as ...