Baseball Picks - July 22, 2007
After getting snake-bit with two one-run losses, we finished 1-2 yesterday for only our third losing day in the last 10. Three afternoon selections today.
MLB picks winning at 58% (180-133) for +61 units since the start of the season.
Today's MLB Baseball Picks:
Game: Chicago White Sox at Boston (2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Chicago White Sox +138 (risk 2 to win 2.8)
Tim Wakefield has had trouble with his knuckleball. When that happens, he has nothing else to turn to. He began the season in rare form, posting a 1.79 ERA through mid-May, but things have been completely different since. He has only made three quality starts out of 12 and has allowed 90 hits in 73 innings while pitching to a 6.53 ERA. As a team, the Sox have struggled, playing sub .500 baseball for almost two months now. Jon Garland has had a good season, with just one bad start in his last 11. That game he coughed up 11 earned runs, and even with that still comes in with a 3.88 ERA. If that game is forgotten he is much closer to three on the entire season. The White Sox are actually 14-11 in their last 25 games, better than what the Sox have done. Like the dog here, with a team that has played better lately, and a pitcher that has more to offer.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota (2:10 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 9.5 -123 (risk 2 to win 1.6)
These teams have both found it difficult to plate runs lately. The Angels have managed just 32 runs in their last 10 games, good for 3.2 a game, and the Twins just 40 in their last 11, good for 3.6 a game. The Angels have not homered in a week. The pitching-rich Angels have called up Joe Saunders from AAA to start. He has pitched all good games for the Angels, and has an ERA of under three. The Twins will call on Matt Garza, who has yet to allow a run on the season in over 19 innings of work. This total is high for this match up with two teams with deep bullpens, hot starters and struggling offenses.
Game: Baltimore at Oakland (4:00 PM Eastern)Pick: 2 units on Baltimore +101 (risk 2 to win 2)
Jeremy Guthrie has made 12 quality starts out of 14, and if you haven't seen him pitch, he definitely has plus stuff. The best thing Baltimore did was move him from the pen, into the rotation. Guthrie has a 2.55 ERA in those 14 starts, and he will be facing an Oakland team that just doesn't hit. The A's have managed just 40 runs in their last 15 games, or 2.67 a game, and have sunk from eight games over .500, to five below in just over a month. Pitching has kept them alive, but not today's starter. Dallas Braden has not been effective at all pitching out of the pen, or starting. He brings a 6+ ERA into this contest, and can't pass up the value in this one with a slight dog.
Results: 2-1
MLB Baseball Picks Resources:
Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-21-2007
No one is hotter than the Cubs right now. Lou Pinella went into one of his tirades, got ejected and the Cubs have responded by going a major league best 19-5. The pitching has been outstanding allowin...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-20-2007
The Cubs continue to do it for us. They won for us again yesterday and we'll back them today as well. They've won six of their past seven and 18 of 23. Arizona has lost four of five and 12 of ...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-19-2007
Detroit has won nine of eleven games and sends the red-hot Jeremy Bonderman to the mound for the sweep of Minnesota. Bonderman is 10-1 this season and a perfect 5-0 on the road. He's got a 3.50 ER...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2007
What can you say about Aaron Harang? He pitches on a bad team, yet when he toes the rubber, the Reds are 15-5! They are 24-50 in all other games. The Reds have won 10 of his last 12 road starts and no...
MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2007
Arizona is ice cold right now having lost seven of their last nine. Milwaukee has won three in a row. Both pitchers are suspect. Yusmeiro Petit has only thrown 17 innings. Claudio Vargas has been pret...
