darrell,

Won yesterday as our underdog pick came through. Lots of very good underdog opportunities today!

WUNDERDOG 2006 RESULTS (UNITS)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	UNITS
MLB	56-35 last 91 picks	62%	+7.9
NFL	87-62 last season	58%	+25
CBB	174-128 last season	58%	+46
NHL	208-140 last season	60%	+24.6
NBA	207-197 last season	51%	+10
CFB	66-61 last season	52%	+5
TOTAL			+118.5

Check out my 12-month performance here.

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Good luck today...

Game: Oakland at Detroit (1:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 stars on Detroit -136 (risk 200 to win 147)

Our only favorite pick of the day is Detroit at home. How do we get the best team in the league at home for this low a price? They are 32-16 at home for a reason. Oakland has been hitting well of late but they don't deserve this much respect. Joe Blanton has been average for them (9-8, 4.73 ERA and 4-4, 5.43 ERA on road). Zach Miner has been better for Detroit (6-2, 3.30 ERA). Both teams have very good bullpens so that's about a wash. Detroit is 6-2 over their past eight games while Oakland is 5-3. The Tigers are 49-16 in this range (favorite of up to -150) and thehy are 19-5 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Small price to pay on a great teams, playing excellent ball at home.

We got the win with Boston as a road favorite here last night and I like 'em again in a similar spot. I mentioned yesterday that we have a team here with a better road record than the home team's home record. Seattle can't score right now (3.9 per game over last seven) as they are 2-5 over that span. Boston meanwhile is 6-1 and they broke out of their offensive slump last night! We get the Sawx as a rare dog here again due to the fact that their starter, Kason Gabbard will be making his MLB debut. Not good for Boston but it's not like Seattle's countering with an ace. Felix Hernandez is 8-8 on the season with an early pushing 5. Like Moyer, he folds against strong offenses (he's 0-7 the last two seasons vs. teams scoring 5.2+ runs per game). If Boston really has broken out of their offensive slump, starting pitching won't matter much here. Again, rare to get a great team that's on a big winning streak as an underdog to a losing team on a losing streak with an average pitcher on the mound. We'll jump on it.

The Brewers are 17-31 on the road for goodness sake. They allow 5.7 per game away from home and their bullpen is 5-11 on the road wiht a 5.36 ERA. How are they a road favorite here? I know, Joe Mays has been downright awful this season. But, this is a classic case of overvaluing starting pitching. The Brewers just aren't good enough to be instilled as a favorite against a winning home team - period. They are 7-16 this season at +125 to -125 and 4-17 after 5+ road games this season (this is their ninth straight). But can't they beat bad pitchers? Well... no. They are 1-10 this season vs. starters who give up 7+ hits per start. Road teams at +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent starting a pitcher with an ERA of 6.70 or worse are just 13-53 (20%) over the past ten years. Let's take the rare opportunity to fade the Brew Crew as a road favorite.

What? Am I nuts. We made a ton over the past few weeks on the Angels who were red hot. But now they are ice cold. They risk getting swept by the lowly Royals and I think it's gonna happen. LA, after tearing through June and early July, has lost three straight surrendering 23 runs. What about pride/revenge you say? How can LA get swept? Well consider that they are 4-12 the last two seasons as a road favorite revenging a loss! Kelvim Escobar is 3-8 as a favorite this season adn 14-21 as a big favorite of -150 or higher over the past decade. KC, as bad as they can be, can pull off big upsets at home. They are 15-10 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 this year. They are also 12-5 the last two seasons at home off a win by 4+ runs. KC scores 5.6 per game at home this season and they actually have the bullpen advantage here which is often their achiles heel. They even have the starting pitching advantage if you look at the stats. Escobar is 3-4 on the road with a 4.14 ERA. Over his last three starts it's 5.60. Luke Hudson has a 3.18 ERA in his two starts. KC is pumped to get the sweep and I like 'em for the big upset.