Mlb Free Tips - July 21, 2009

We had a super day around the bases yesterday as we finished 6-1 for +15.4 units! Yesterday's winner was anchored by a +170 runline dog winner as Philly took it to the Cubs 10-1.

Over the last five weeks, our MLB picks are 82-63 for +48 units and we look to extend that run with four more premium picks today including two 4-unit plays.

WUNDERDOG 2009 RECENT RESULTS ($100/bet)
SPORT	WINS-LOSSES	%	NET
WNBA	45-34 last 79 picks	57%	+$2540
MLB	82-63 last 145 picks	57%	+$4830
NBA	299-237 last 536 picks	56%	+$12460
NFL	72-44 last 116 picks	62%	+$7320
TOTAL			+$27150

Today's MLB Baseball Picks:

Game: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Philadelphia -120 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.3)

The Phillies have gotten to the point where they have to almost be considered an automatic play-on right now. They have now won 13 of their last 14, which includes nine straight wins. The Phillies have been dominated with both their bats and their pitching staff as they have allowed just two runs or less in 10 of the 14 games, and one run or less in six of the 14, while the offense has exploded for 7.2 runs per game. Rich Harden is a top-of-the-staff pitcher for the Cubs, but he has had a bad season start to finish, and has been giving up the longball with high frequency. The Cubs are just 16-41 as a dog of +110 to +150 in their last 57, so you have to go with the scorching hot Phillies here.

When you look for a runline play on a team, it certainly doesn't hurt when they have won 13 of their last 14 and have outscored the opponent 91-33 in the process. That is a margain of over four runs per game, so getting them in this spot with strong underdog odds is chock full of value. Add a Cubs team struggling as a dog on the road in this range, and a pitcher that is truly struggling, and have to make a play on the Phillies runline in this one.

Ryan Sadowski has done a great job in his few opportunities with the Giants, but this is a Giants team that has surprised everyone in a positive way, but they remain with an Achillies heel. This team has been dominating at home with their 31-15 mark, and their success on the road has been limited to their two ace pitchers in Cain and Lincecum. Here we sit with the calendar turning toward August, and the Giants sit with just five wins on the road when Cain and Lincecum are not on the mound. The Braves will go with Derek Lowe, who has made 10 home starts and has allowed three runs or less in nine of them. The Giants have now been 29-59 in their last 88 on the road against a team with a winning record, while the Braves have been sizzling at home winning eight of their last nine. I'm going with Atlanta here.

I mentioned in my moneyline writeup the extensive difficulties the Giants have had winning on the road without their two aces on the hill. That win total is at just five more than halfway through the season. The Braves have been in charge at home, winning eight of their last nine games. They have also gone 8-2 in their last 10 home games to a would-be runline of -1.5. I'm going with the Braves here on the runline.

MLB Baseball Picks Resources:

• Don't forget to visit our 2009 baseball prior pick results.
• Check out baseball blog here.
• Don't forget to read our mlb gambling philosophy here.
• Take a look at our baseball prior picks here.
• Don't forget to visit our MLB Baseball Game Preview.
• Hop over to our mlb sportsbooks here.
• Hop over to our MLB odds and lines here.
• View mlb baseball handicapping here.
• Updated today: MLB ATS standings.

Check out the last five MLB Baseball Picks Newsletters:

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-20-2009
Both the New York Mets and the Washington Nationals have sure struggled over the last month or so, and the Mets have been reduced to a poor team because of multiple injuries to key players. The result...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-19-2009
The Mariners don't score a lot but their pitching and defense have been tremendous. They allow just 4.1 runs per game overall, 3.9 per game in day games and they have given up just 2.6 per game ov...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-18-2009
The past has led many to see Johan Santana post at almost even money and become a no-brainer pick. That has changed with this Mets team that has been riddled with injuries, the latest Gary Sheffield, ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-17-2009
The Seattle Mariners certainly have a good one in Felix Hernandez. He has been in control over his last nine starts, but as good as he has been, Cleveland has reduced him from All-Star to ordinary as ...

MLB-Baseball-Picks-July-16-2009
Second half action gets underway tonight with the Oakland A's hosting the Anaheim Angels. It has been a breakout season for Dallas Braden of the A's, who enters this one with a 2.45 ERA in his...